China Wants a Big Fleet of 5 Aircraft Carriers by 2030

[F-22Raptor]

But USA, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will be difficult to hit Chinese Aircraft Carriers in west pacific.

WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies.

The network is being built by SpaceX's Starshield business unit under a $1.8 billion contract signed in 2021 with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), an intelligence agency that manages spy satellites, the sources said.

The plans show the extent of SpaceX's involvement in U.S. intelligence and military projects and illustrate a deeper Pentagon investment into vast, low-Earth orbiting satellite systems aimed at supporting ground forces.

If successful, the sources said the program would significantly advance the ability of the U.S. government and military to quickly spot potential targets almost anywhere on the globe.

The contract signals growing trust by the intelligence establishment of a company whose owner has clashed with the Biden administration and sparked controversy, opens new tab over the use of Starlink satellite connectivity in the Ukraine war, the sources said.

The Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in February the existence of a $1.8 billion classified Starshield contract with an unknown intelligence agency without detailing the purposes of the program.

Reuters reporting discloses for the first time that the SpaceX contract is for a powerful new spy system with hundreds of satellites bearing Earth-imaging capabilities that can operate as a swarm in low orbits, and that the spy agency that Musk's company is working with is the NRO.

Reuters was unable to determine when the new network of satellites would come online and could not establish what other companies are part of the program with their own contracts.

SpaceX, the world's largest satellite operator, did not respond to several requests for comment about the contract, its role in it and details on satellite launches. The Pentagon referred a request for comment to the NRO and SpaceX.

In a statement the NRO acknowledged its mission to develop a sophisticated satellite system and its partnerships with other government agencies, companies, research institutions and nations, but declined to comment on Reuters' findings about the extent of SpaceX’s involvement in the effort.

"The National Reconnaissance Office is developing the most capable, diverse, and resilient space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance system the world has ever seen," a spokesperson said.

The satellites can track targets on the ground and share that data with U.S. intelligence and military officials, the sources said. In principle, that would enable the U.S. government to quickly capture continuous imagery of activities on the ground nearly anywhere on the globe, aiding intelligence and military operations, they added.

Roughly a dozen prototypes have been launched since 2020, among other satellites on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets, three of the sources said.

A U.S. government database of objects in orbit shows several SpaceX missions having deployed satellites that neither the company nor the government have ever acknowledged. Two sources confirmed those to be prototypes for the Starshield network.

All the sources asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to discuss the U.S. government program.

The Pentagon is already a big SpaceX customer, using its Falcon 9 rockets to launch military payloads into space.

Starshield's first prototype satellite, launched in 2020, was part of a separate, roughly $200 million contract that helped position SpaceX for the subsequent $1.8 billion award, one of the sources said.

The planned Starshield network is separate from Starlink, SpaceX's growing commercial broadband constellation that has about 5,500 satellites in space to provide near-global internet to consumers, companies and government agencies.

The classified constellation of spy satellites represents one of the U.S. government’s most sought-after capabilities in space because it is designed to offer the most persistent, pervasive and rapid coverage of activities on Earth.

"No one can hide," one of the sources said of the system’s potential capability, when describing the network's reach.

Musk, also the founder and CEO of Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab and owner of social media company X, has driven innovation in space but has caused frustration among some officials in the Biden administration because of his past control of Starlink in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s military uses it for secure communications in the conflict with Russia. That authority over Starlink in a war zone by Musk, and not the U.S. military, created tension between him and the US government.

A series of Reuters’ stories has detailed how Musk's manufacturing operations, including at SpaceX, have harmed consumers and workers.

The Starshield network is part of intensifying competition between the U.S. and its rivals to become the dominant military power in space, in part by expanding spy satellite systems away from bulky, expensive spacecraft at higher orbits. Instead a vast, low-orbiting network can provide quicker and near-constant imaging of the Earth.

China also plans to start building its own satellite constellations, and the Pentagon has warned of space weapon threats from Russia, which could be capable of disabling entire satellite networks.

Starshield aims to be more resilient to attacks from sophisticated space powers.

The network is also intended to greatly expand the U.S. government's remote-sensing capabilities and will consist of large satellites with imaging sensors, as well as a greater number of relay satellites that pass the imaging data and other communications across the network using inter-satellite lasers, two of the sources said.

The NRO includes personnel from the U.S. Space Force and CIA and provides classified satellite imagery for the Pentagon and other intelligence agencies.

The spy satellites will house sensors provided by another company, three of the sources said.

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www.reuters.com

Still think the US can’t see and target Chinese ships?

 

[Antonius123]

Anyway no denying the substantial addition of Chinese carriers from 2025 onwards, but at the same time, trying to break free from the jail that is the first and second island chain will be much much more harder than what it used to be. The Taiwanese would have hundred of fortified missile bunker, the Japanese supersonic and stealth cruise missile program would have been operational, US PrSM and Typhoon batteries would've been deployed to Japan, Philippines would have deployed their first Brahmos battery, Indonesian land based Atmaca unit would've been raised in the Natuna and Vietnam, no need for further explanation as they're a long user of coastal missile.

Chinese carrier's doesn't need to be nearby Japan coast until all Japan military base destroyed. DF-21D (1500km range) either launched from land, H-6K or from Type 055 destroyers can do this job.

 

[Raiden]

Chinese carrier's doesn't need to be nearby Japan coast until all Japan military base destroyed.

Yeah...nah. I see nothing that the Chinese can do that the US-Japan can't do either.

What China did will likely be met with in kind response, vice versa. This fantasy where one side only destroys and the other are destroyed are childish fantasy of a fanboy. And I'm no fanboy of both China and the West. I see it as it is.

 

[Antonius123]

Yeah...nah. I see nothing that the Chinese can do that the US-Japan can't do either.

What China did will likely be met with in kind response, vice versa. This fantasy where one side only destroys and the other are destroyed are childish fantasy of a fanboy. And I'm no fanboy of both China and the West. I see it as it is.

China has DF-21D, DF-26, DF-17. US-Japan dont have similar ones.

So no, at the moment US-Japan can't do the same.

 

[Antonius123]

WASHINGTON, March 16 (Reuters) - SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies.

The network is being built by SpaceX's Starshield business unit under a $1.8 billion contract signed in 2021 with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), an intelligence agency that manages spy satellites, the sources said.

The plans show the extent of SpaceX's involvement in U.S. intelligence and military projects and illustrate a deeper Pentagon investment into vast, low-Earth orbiting satellite systems aimed at supporting ground forces.

If successful, the sources said the program would significantly advance the ability of the U.S. government and military to quickly spot potential targets almost anywhere on the globe.

The contract signals growing trust by the intelligence establishment of a company whose owner has clashed with the Biden administration and sparked controversy, opens new tab over the use of Starlink satellite connectivity in the Ukraine war, the sources said.

The Wall Street Journal reported, opens new tab in February the existence of a $1.8 billion classified Starshield contract with an unknown intelligence agency without detailing the purposes of the program.

Reuters reporting discloses for the first time that the SpaceX contract is for a powerful new spy system with hundreds of satellites bearing Earth-imaging capabilities that can operate as a swarm in low orbits, and that the spy agency that Musk's company is working with is the NRO.

Reuters was unable to determine when the new network of satellites would come online and could not establish what other companies are part of the program with their own contracts.

SpaceX, the world's largest satellite operator, did not respond to several requests for comment about the contract, its role in it and details on satellite launches. The Pentagon referred a request for comment to the NRO and SpaceX.

In a statement the NRO acknowledged its mission to develop a sophisticated satellite system and its partnerships with other government agencies, companies, research institutions and nations, but declined to comment on Reuters' findings about the extent of SpaceX’s involvement in the effort.

"The National Reconnaissance Office is developing the most capable, diverse, and resilient space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance system the world has ever seen," a spokesperson said.

The satellites can track targets on the ground and share that data with U.S. intelligence and military officials, the sources said. In principle, that would enable the U.S. government to quickly capture continuous imagery of activities on the ground nearly anywhere on the globe, aiding intelligence and military operations, they added.

Roughly a dozen prototypes have been launched since 2020, among other satellites on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets, three of the sources said.

A U.S. government database of objects in orbit shows several SpaceX missions having deployed satellites that neither the company nor the government have ever acknowledged. Two sources confirmed those to be prototypes for the Starshield network.

All the sources asked to remain anonymous because they were not authorized to discuss the U.S. government program.

The Pentagon is already a big SpaceX customer, using its Falcon 9 rockets to launch military payloads into space.

Starshield's first prototype satellite, launched in 2020, was part of a separate, roughly $200 million contract that helped position SpaceX for the subsequent $1.8 billion award, one of the sources said.

The planned Starshield network is separate from Starlink, SpaceX's growing commercial broadband constellation that has about 5,500 satellites in space to provide near-global internet to consumers, companies and government agencies.

The classified constellation of spy satellites represents one of the U.S. government’s most sought-after capabilities in space because it is designed to offer the most persistent, pervasive and rapid coverage of activities on Earth.

"No one can hide," one of the sources said of the system’s potential capability, when describing the network's reach.

Musk, also the founder and CEO of Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab and owner of social media company X, has driven innovation in space but has caused frustration among some officials in the Biden administration because of his past control of Starlink in Ukraine, where Kyiv’s military uses it for secure communications in the conflict with Russia. That authority over Starlink in a war zone by Musk, and not the U.S. military, created tension between him and the US government.

A series of Reuters’ stories has detailed how Musk's manufacturing operations, including at SpaceX, have harmed consumers and workers.

The Starshield network is part of intensifying competition between the U.S. and its rivals to become the dominant military power in space, in part by expanding spy satellite systems away from bulky, expensive spacecraft at higher orbits. Instead a vast, low-orbiting network can provide quicker and near-constant imaging of the Earth.

China also plans to start building its own satellite constellations, and the Pentagon has warned of space weapon threats from Russia, which could be capable of disabling entire satellite networks.

Starshield aims to be more resilient to attacks from sophisticated space powers.

The network is also intended to greatly expand the U.S. government's remote-sensing capabilities and will consist of large satellites with imaging sensors, as well as a greater number of relay satellites that pass the imaging data and other communications across the network using inter-satellite lasers, two of the sources said.

The NRO includes personnel from the U.S. Space Force and CIA and provides classified satellite imagery for the Pentagon and other intelligence agencies.

The spy satellites will house sensors provided by another company, three of the sources said.

Loading…

www.reuters.com

Still think the US can’t see and target Chinese ships?

Who said US can't see?

US can see likewise with China. But can US hit chinese carriers nearby China coast without risking their own naval assets?

The answer is NO. Because until now there is NO effective way to intercept HYPERSONIC AShBM like DF-26 or DF-17 that have range 4000km or beyond.

 

[Raiden]

China has DF-21D, DF-26, DF-17. US-Japan dont have similar ones.

Maybe not, but just because those missile can land in Japanese soil doesn't mean that the Japanese will be ejected out from the Island, repairs and seabees (CB) will do the necessary repairs and the fight wil continue, this time with the Americans leading for retaliation. There's more than one way to deliver explosives into China's soil, and the US military know how to do this more than I (and YOU) do.

As long as Japan is still there, those Chinese admirals would not risk their career for suicidal run to breakout from the natural jail of the X X X line i draw earlier

 

[gambit]

Fun fact, PLAN have the largest AESA equipped surface combatant fleet in the world, since vast majority of USN combatants, including Tico and most Burkes workes with legacy PESA, while most destroyers built by PLAN post 2002, including Luyang II, III, Renhai, and Jiangkai III, all comes with their version of AEGIS/MF-STAR system with AESA antennas...

If you consider the USN capable in defending their carriers, then PLAN is at least comparable, if not more capable, when we factor in the difference in performance of AShMs and other present support air assets in the west Pacific.

But hey, believe whatever lets you sleep at night.

Yeikkesss...PESA v AESA. Depending on what kind of data you are looking for, PESA will work just fine.

For the benefit of the lay readers out there...Bear with me...

When a return is considered to be a 'target', that signal is assigned a physical memory space.

With a mechanical array, the kind that physically move side-side as for decades we know of radar, that physical memory space is not updated until the next movement or sweep. So for the traditional mechanical array, when they say the radar can track multiple targets, that is a false tracking capability. The radar computer simply remembers which target is in which memory space then wait until the array move to the actual airborne target to reassess all the usual resolutions:

- Altitude
- Airspeed
- Heading
- Aspect angle

The reason why there is a limit of how many actual targets can the traditional mechanical radar can monitor is because tracking is so critical that a target cannot be assigned a virtual memory space but an actual physical location in whatever memory the computer has. A physical location is %99.999 non-corruptible. The more physical memory the more targets the computer can assign targets to that capacity. If a target is assigned a virtual memory space, its critical data (above) can be moved from module to module and that is not desirable. Maybe to track birds or insects, but not for airliners or incoming ballistic warheads.

Now we come to Electronic Scanning Array or ESA.

A PESA array can produce only one beam, but that beam is so agile that any target in any physical memory space can be updated almost instantaneously. That mean for the same memory capacity, an ESA system can keep track in %99 real time more targets in more physical memory spaces. How many depends on the radar computer's processing capability. Because that single beam can move from target to target within millisecs or faster, the radar computer can even use virtual memory to track even more targets, but really not a good idea even with being an ESA system.

An AESA array can produce multiple beams, in theory, but in practice, that depends on the radar computer's processing capability. Both sub-types works the same as far as memory management goes, but if the radar computer cannot process more than 12 targets, for example, then there is no point in creating 12 beams no matter how many targets out there.

Methods for Adaptive Radar Resources Management

Hosted by IEEE AP-MTT Chapter

ece.osu.edu

Advances in electronic components have driven the trend in development of adaptive and highly configurable sensors, such as the electronically steered array antenna. The electronically steered array antenna enables an agile radar beam, allowing dynamic allocation of a radar system’s time/energy budget between multiple radar tasks. This creates the radar resource management problem,...​

So which situation would a PESA system works good enough? AWACS is one. AWACS are essentially monitoring missions over large areas, air and surface. Air defense is where multiple agile beams are required because this situation always have multiple attackers with constantly changing resolutions (the four items above) and within small areas, as in less than 100 miles to scan.

The implication here is that a well designed PESA system can equal or even outperform an AESA competitor. Not only that, depends on what kind of targets, a PESA which is a lower cost alternative will work just fine.

 

[Antonius123]

Maybe not, but just because those missile can land in Japanese soil doesn't mean that the Japanese will be ejected out from the Island, repairs and seabees (CB) will do the necessary repairs and the fight wil continue, this time with the Americans leading for retaliation. There's more than one way to deliver explosives into China's soil, and the US military know how to do this more than I (and YOU) do.

As long as Japan is still there, those Chinese admirals would not risk their career for suicidal run to breakout from the natural jail of the X X X line i draw earlier

Well it take long time to repairs the damaged runaway or base if it is destructed up to spalling or subsurface damage.

The high speed and kinetic energy of ballistic missile impacts of DF-21D and DF-26 inherently deliver a significant blow to structures. Causing spalling or subsurface damage to runways requires a weapon designed to penetrate the surface before detonating. Traditional ballistic missile warheads, including those of the DF-21D and DF-26, are generally designed to explode upon impact or slightly after, to maximize surface damage or to target specific above-ground structures or vessels.

And during the repair, all the fighter jet (F16, F15, F35), bombers and other military assets can't fly and will be target of destruction either by the same DF-21/DF-26 or the chinese version of tomahawk.

And China has hundreds of DF-21D and DF-26 therefore she can repeat sending these AShBM to Japan and Korean military base till all military assets on the bases destroyed and beating Japanese ability to repairs.

Also damaging air bases will be soon followed by destruction of other military bases and infrastructures, end up with occupation. Of course it is not that easy, but on the paper she has capability.

 

[Raiden]

Well it take long time to repairs the damage runaway or base if it is destructed up to spalling or subsurface damage.

The high speed and kinetic energy of ballistic missile impacts of DF-21D and DF-26 inherently deliver a significant blow to structures. Causing spalling or subsurface damage to runways requires a weapon designed to penetrate the surface before detonating. Traditional ballistic missile warheads, including those of the DF-21D and DF-26, are generally designed to explode upon impact or slightly after, to maximize surface damage or to target specific above-ground structures or vessels.

And China has hundreds of DF-21D and DF-26 therefore she can repeat sending these AShBM to Japan and Korean military base every 2 days beating Japanese ability to repairs.

Also damaging air bases will be soon followed by destruction of other military bases and infrastructures, end up with occupation.

The U.S has 5 currently operational/advanced stage of development weapons systems that I can think of to create the same effect on Chinese air bases/ports. And many more weapons to make sure that China couldn't effectively respond to such strike.

Like I said, if you want to believe that China will do this and not becoming the receiving end that's up to you.

 

[Antonius123]

The U.S has 5 currently operational/advanced stage of development weapons systems that I can think of to create the same effect on Chinese air bases/ports. And many more weapons to make sure that China couldn't effectively respond to such strike.

Like I said, if you want to believe that China will do this and not becoming the receiving end that's up to you.

No, US has none in operational yet equivalent to hypersonic DF-21D, DF-26, and DF-17. In development yes but we still have to see it.

 

[Beijingwalker]

As long as Japan is still there, those Chinese admirals would not risk their career for suicidal run to breakout from the natural jail of the X X X line i draw earlier

Japan's arch enemy is North Korea, who repeatedly fire nuclear capable rockets over Japan, China never did it once. Also Russia strategic bombers routinely circle Japan, something China hasn't tried either.

 

[Beijingwalker]

The U.S has 5 currently operational/advanced stage of development weapons systems that I can think of to create the same effect on Chinese air bases/ports. And many more weapons to make sure that China couldn't effectively respond to such strike.

Like I said, if you want to believe that China will do this and not becoming the receiving end that's up to you.

Legacy weapons are no match for increasingly sophisticated new weapons today.

From today's article

The U.S. Navy's Aircraft Carrier Dominance Could Go Up in Flames

The U.S. Navy's Aircraft Carrier Dominance Could Go Up in Flames Whether it is the Nimitz-class or the Ford-class carriers, the fact remains that these systems are the most prominent warship on the high seas today. But they are now obsolete. by Brandon J. Weichert March 15, 2024 Summary: In...

defencepk.com

 

[lightning f57]

1 carrier battle group is a formidable force, 5 will be something.

The Chinese tend to operate from their region i dont think they have ambitions like the US to be a global navy conducting war 000s mile away from home. The Chinese fleet i think will be focused in the South China sea zone, with the mainland close it will make all its enemies think a few times before they try sonwthing silly.

The US knows Taiwan is a red line, but like Ukraine which was a red line for Russia a US misadventure can not be ruled out. Only this time it wont be able to resupply Taiwan like it can the Ukrainians and the Chinese will have taken an important lesson from the Russian invasion.

 

[Beijingwalker]

The so called first island chain, second island chain are just so far fetched fantasy, Chinese navy was very weak in the past, but it didn't stop China becoming the world biggest trading nation and maritime nation. 6 out of 10 world biggest ports are in China. What US can do about it?

World biggest ports rankings

 

[gambit]

1 carrier battle group is a formidable force, 5 will be something.

The Chinese tend to operate from their region i dont think they have ambitions like the US to be a global navy conducting war 000s mile away from home. The Chinese fleet i think will be focused in the South China sea zone, with the mainland close it will make all its enemies think a few times before they try sonwthing silly.

The US knows Taiwan is a red line, but like Ukraine which was a red line for Russia a US misadventure can not be ruled out. Only this time it wont be able to resupply Taiwan like it can the Ukrainians and the Chinese will have taken an important lesson from the Russian invasion.

Yes, the important lesson is that -- do not follow Russia.

By now, Beijing essentially abandoned Russia and by that, I mean whatever remnants of military doctrines from Russia the PLA have -- is gone. The Parade Line Army (PLA) is on their own. An amphibious operation is categorically different than a land invasion and the PLA have no experience in that.