Danger of US giving Saudis F35s: Golden opportunity for normalization slipping away? - analysis

I believe Elbit also supplies the helmet targeting optics for the Apache Longbow helicopter. They aren’t newbies.
As I wrote before, I find it very hard to believe that the US of all countries has made itself willingly reliant on a foreign contributor (non-NATO member state too) to design a vital component of the F-35 without having much say or a homemade second option/replacement that they could fall back on. Even more so when the F-35 is the most advanced export fighter jet that the US has.

Pretty sure Elbit itself has very strong connections to the US (from the very beginning) and financial and scientific support.

After all the US has been giving Israel billions of dollars in military support for decades on an annual basis.

Not aware of any single Israel-made tech that is not a derivative from existing US/Western tech as well.

Israel cannot have any veto on US sales of US weapons abroad, even if containing (overall) small Israeli made (US subsidiaries) parts.

You mentioned the Apache Longbow helicopter and the helmet targeting optics. According to AI, all of the Muslim nations on this list, have this component.


If Israel really had a say in terms of who the US could export to, would you not think, logically speaking, that most of the Muslim Arab nations would have been banned by Israel?

Instead we have Egypt next door, Kuwait, Morocco, KSA, Qatar, UAE and Indonesia (most populous Muslim nation).
 
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Point being, the Israeli-made components (helmet and outer wings) in a project the scale of F-35 which has 1000's of components and where roughly 1800 firms have been involved, I don't think even remotely gets Israel to have a say about export destinations. Elbit USA contributions in this regard are contributions under a US framework and a US project (F-35).

If Israel, based on this tiny contribution overall, had a real say about the export destination, we would not be having this discussion at all or the content of this thread.
 
The Saudis, in general, are much closer to the US and Europe than to Eastern countries.

They are also part of an unspoken and unofficial Middle East security alliance with Israel and other Sunni countries against Tehran.
Jpost just outing Saudis like that
 
As I wrote before, I find it very hard to believe that the US of all countries has made itself willingly reliant on a foreign contributor (non-NATO member state too) to design a vital component
what is with the foreign/NATO fetish?

Japan isn't NATO
South Korea isn't NATO
Australia isn't NATO
Sweden isn't NATO
Switzerland isn't NATO
Singapore isn't NATO
the list goes on...

All of them actively sell the US military various stuff.
The US has military partners all around the world pitching us different components or a better way to make something.

While it's cool to say the US military machine is a world threat the reality is lots of countries have been very actively part of it and don't even blink when a US military plane lands at their airports. The country list is long and the landings are every day. That "threat" is nonsense to most countries.

You mentioned the Apache Longbow helicopter and the helmet targeting optics. According to AI, all of the Muslim nations on this list, have this component.

Maybe Israel just isn't as dismissive of sales to Muslim countries than you think.
Or if they yell the interconnected partner countries start making joint waves on Israel's own foreign dependencies. So they back off.
 
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what is with the foreign/NATO fetish?

Japan isn't NATO
South Korea isn't NATO
Australia isn't NATO
Sweden isn't NATO
Switzerland isn't NATO
Singapore isn't NATO
the list goes on...

All of them actively sell the US military various stuff.
The US has military partners all around the world pitching us different components or a better way to make something.

While it's cool to say the US military machine is a world threat the reality is lots of countries have been very actively part of it and don't even blink when a US military plane lands at their airports. The country list is long and the landings are every day. That "threat" is nonsense to most countries.



Maybe Israel just isn't as dismissive of sales to Muslim countries than you think.
Or if they yell the interconnected partner countries start making joint waves on Israel's own foreign dependencies. So they back off.
Lost track of what we are even discussing anymore (engaged in several discussions at once on this forum, most of them countering a well-known Iranian troll).

If the overall small Israeli contribution to the F-35 (2 components) in the form of US-based Israeli subsidiaries (Elbit) is this tiny, it has no great importance for KSA or any other potential Muslim buyer, as long as (as is the case), Israel itself has no say on who the US exports the F-35 to.

I don't know how many foreign contributors there are in total to the F-35 program, when there are roughly 2000 components or so, but I would imagine that there are quite a few but overall the majority of the components are made in the US by US-based firms.

The topic of Israel itself was only mentioned because it has been unofficial US policy to limit certain US weapons sales to Arab/Muslim nations in the vicinity of Israel to keep the Israeli military advantage intact. That and the powerful Israeli lobby potentially torpedoing this KSA-US deal.

That and earlier my post about how I see US foreign policy vis a vis Israel being detrimental to the US interests itself short-term and long-term.
 
The topic of Israel itself was only mentioned because it has been unofficial US policy to limit certain US weapons sales to Arab/Muslim nations in the vicinity of Israel to keep the Israeli military advantage intact. That and the powerful Israeli lobby potentially torpedoing this KSA-US deal.

That and earlier my post about how I see US foreign policy vis a vis Israel being detrimental to the US interests itself short-term and long-term.

That's certainly true. Also the US was never pro-exporting ballistic missiles/weaponized drones to other countries causing Saudi to ask China for them.

Now people are saying "hey look Saudi is snuggling up to China" so it is "risky to sell them F-35"...when in fact their hands were tied and had no other choice.
 
That's certainly true. Also the US was never pro-exporting ballistic missiles/weaponized drones to other countries causing Saudi to ask China for them.

Now people are saying "hey look Saudi is snuggling up to China" so it is "risky to sell them F-35"...when in fact their hands were tied and had no other choice.
But KSA has not been proven to or even seriously accused of (from what I am aware of at least) leaking US secrets to China. Pretty sure that this accusation is aimed at the UAE.


Obviously KSA will look for alternative partners if the US is unwilling to sell x or y. Perfectly normal. Would the US or any serious state not look after its own interests first and foremost? ABC of geopolitics after all in particular in our part of the world. The missile deal with the Chinese in the 1980's (which today has expanded 100 fold and lead to an indigenous Saudi Arabian ballistic missile production and Royal Saudi Arabian Strategic Missile force)


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was due to regional developments. Which later evolved into this:


Airstrike
Dhahran and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabian and American military targets
18 January – 26 February 1991
Iraq Iraqi Armed Forces
  • 28 U.S. soldiers killed
  • 150 U.S. soldiers injured
  • 1 security guard killed
  • 85 civilians injured

[th]
Iraqi ballistic missile attacks on Saudi Arabia

[/th]
[td]
Part of the Gulf War

[/td]
[td]

Aftermath of an Iraqi missile attack on a US barracks in Dhahran on 25 February 1991

[/td]​
[th]
Type

[/th]
[th]
Location

[/th]
[th]
Target

[/th]
[th]
Date

[/th]
[th]
Executed by

[/th]
[th]
Casualties

[/th]



Other than that, pretty sure that KSA has been a reliable partner for the US since 1945 overall.

But I recall the same Israel selling/giving US military secrets away to the USSR/Russia, China and sinking US naval ships without much or any consequences.




This goes way back.

1993:


1999:


"The Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard gave United States military secrets to the Soviet Union in exchange for exit visas for Soviet Jews, a US magazine reported yesterday.

The report in the New Yorker appeared to be timed to pre-empt President Clinton's expected decision whether to free Pollard, who was given a life sentence in 1985, to encourage Israel to pursue the Middle East peace process."


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Pretty sure the whole Epstein affair is an Mossad intel operation in the heart of the US implemented to blackmail powerful US politicians, socialites, billionaires and people of importance. Same case with Maxwell (the father of Ghislaine) just in the UK.

Spying of course occurs against allies as well but Mossad/Israeli intelligence services are up there with those that do it the most. Well-known in the international intel community.

As an American I would be much more wary about Israel in this regard.
 
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If SA does buy them the conditions should be the same for any other partner, what Israel wants shouldn't factor. SA will pay top money, IMO its the wrong move, SA should pivot to China buy J35s.
 
If SA does buy them the conditions should be the same for any other partner, what Israel wants shouldn't factor. SA will pay top money, IMO its the wrong move, SA should pivot to China buy J35s.
No US weaponry that KSA has ever bought, including top tier weapons back in the day (AWACS, F-15 etc.) had any restrictions. This likely, if approved, will neither.
Case in point there are numerous ballistic missile bases (based underground or created deep inside mountains) that have been created not far from Jordan/Israel across much of Northern KSA.

Here is an Israeli-based Zionist/Jew talking about it extensively with recent satellite imagery used as well:

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The second or third largest air base in KSA is in Tabuk (King Faisal Air Base) in Northwestern KSA.

As far as normalization goes, KSA is one of the few countries in the world never to have normalized/recognized Israel since 1948. The KSA condition is publicly known for everyone involved, Israel included. If you want normalization with KSA you have to commit to a two-state solution.

As far as China goes, which KSA already has deep strategic ties with (economically and militarily - no Muslim state has closer economic ties with China than KSA),

that would require adopting a completely new infrastructure in the Air Force which is something that would take at least 10 years if not more. To educate all the necessary fighter pilots and make them familiar with Chinese systems, build new infrastructure, familiarize yourself with spare parts and various components, if like with the F-15 and other existing fighter jets in the KSA arsenal you want to be able to build some of the components in-house (let alone repairs which many are done inside KSA for a long time by KSA hands), bombs included.

In other words it is not something that is done overnight.

If you look past all of that, you also have to add the possibility of sanctions, KSA being cut off from key US military systems or the US creating difficulties with repairs of existing US systems (of course there are solutions to that such as in-house or black market etc. but far from ideal) potential economic sanctions that could be expanded to NATO/European partners under US pressure/blackmail etc.

Is that all worth it for a fighter jet (J35S) that is yet battle proven (from what I am aware of) and which most likely is inferior to the F-35SA version that KSA would get? Or almost with certainty inferior.

KSA is mainly focused on internal development. Industrial, economic, infrastructural, military, scientific etc. The last thing we need are sanctions or having really bad relations with superpowers. There is a reason why KSA's balancing act between West and East is working and KSA is reaping the benefits of this for now.


KSA positioning itself as one of the largest tourism destinations in the world as well.

A good overview of some of the ongoing giga projects in KSA.


The Kingdom’s total number of mega-projects has surged from just 64 in 2010 to 476 by 2025, placing it among the top three countries globally in terms of volume.


The report, titled The Future of Major Programme Delivery, defines mega-projects as those valued at $1 billion or more, while giga-projects are classified as projects worth $10 billion or more.


Saudi Arabia currently shares second place with India for the number of giga-projects, with each country hosting 43 such developments. The United States ranks first globally, with 88 active or completed giga-projects.


Overall, the United States tops the rankings for combined mega and giga-projects with 1,663, followed by India (729), Saudi Arabia (577), and the United Kingdom (484). The United Arab Emirates ranks seventh with 233 projects.​


In terms of tourism:


A quote from the article:

In the first quarter of 2025, Saudi Arabia stood out as the nation with the highest increase in international tourism revenue globally. This growth reflects not only a determined strategy to diversify the economy through large tourism projects, but also an effort to strengthen its presence and alliances on the international stage.​

Record high in international tourism​

According to the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) World Tourism Barometer, published in May 2025, the Saudi kingdom experienced a 102% increase in international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019. This percentage far exceeds the global average of 3% and the regional average of 44% in the Middle East, consolidating Saudi Arabia as a key player in the global tourism sector.
Don't forget that KSA is going to host the Asian Winter Games (2029), EXPO (2030), Asian Games (2034), FIFA World Cup (2034) to just mention a few upcoming global events.

Trying to mess up your relationship with one of your closest, oldest and most important partners (that is an important partner in the HUGE AI push that KSA is taking - forgot even covering AI) for a Chinese fighter jet, would be absolute madness looking at least 10 years ahead.

As far as 6th generation fighter jets, that is another question. From what I am aware of there (as of now) will only be 2 real 6th generation fighter jets and both will be US and Chinese. But we are talking about the 2030's here and before any of them would want to export their 6th generation fighter jets, they will be building/close to finalizing their 7th generation fighter jets!
 
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Absolutely crazy if this can be accomplished by MbS and the leadership involved.

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Expected Deals This Week 🇸🇦
1- 48 F-35 Stealth Fighter Jets
2- 60 F-15EX Fighter Jets
3- F-15SA Upgrade
4- Boeing 737-8 Aircraft
5- Patriot Air Defense Suite
6- Civil Nuclear Program
7- Artificial Intelligence and Technology Agreements
8- Supply of Thousands of NVIDIA Chips
9- Investments with Oracle
10- Investments with Google
11- Investments with AMD
12- AI Data Centers
13- Agreements between Aramco and Woodside
14- Agreements between Aramco and Energy
15- Agreements between Aramco and Commonwealth
16- Infrastructure Deals with AECOM
17- Infrastructure Deals with Parsons
18- Deals with National Security Agency
#CrownPrinceInAmerica

Zionist telegram channels crying.


Lapid: Sale of F-35s to Saudis was never part of normalization talks​


Opposition Leader Yair Lapid lashes out against the government’s “weakness,” following media reports that Israel does not object to the United States supplying Saudi Arabia with F-35 stealth fighter jets.

“As someone who participated in dozens of discussions on a normalization arrangement with Saudi Arabia, an F-35 deal was never part of a normalization agreement, because it was clear that Israel’s security requires maintaining its qualitative military edge,” states Lapid.

“It is unacceptable that due to the weakness of the government, we are giving up on Israeli security interests and allowing the F-35 deal.”

Israel has insisted that any transfer of such advanced aircraft be conditioned on the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Jerusalem, Channel 12 and Axios reported on Saturday.


Keep crying.

As we say in KSA:

كل زق كل زق

:ROFLMAO:
 
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F-35s are great aircrafts, but wouldnt it make more sense if the Saudis acquired the J-35 instead?

J-35 aquisition would certainly provide better chances of ToT and maybe even local production down the road, which align with the idustrialization goals of KSA.
 
F-35s are great aircrafts, but wouldnt it make more sense if the Saudis acquired the J-35 instead?

J-35 aquisition would certainly provide better chances of ToT and maybe even local production down the road, which align with the idustrialization goals of KSA.
First part, why so? Is there even any remote evidence of the J-35 being remotely as capable as the F-35?

Also see my reply in post 56 to the same suggestion for more information.

Second part, every KSA military import, a large part has to be produced in KSA by KSA hands as part of the law and Saudi Vision 2030. Hence why, 2024 data just published not long ago, KSA military imports that are fully produced within KSA by KSA hands and firms has reached almost 25% with the goal of 50% (planned) being reached by 2030).

Sorry, it was 24.89% to be precise.

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1763303687260.png

Even parts of THAAD (which KSA has) is now made inside KSA by Saudi Arabian firms and hands.

The F-35 sold to KSA (if it goes through) will be a F-35SA with parts made in KSA as well by Saudi Arabian firms, just like with the F-15SA.
 
Absolutely crazy if this can be accomplished by MbS and the leadership involved.

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.


Expected Deals This Week 🇸🇦
1- 48 F-35 Stealth Fighter Jets
2- 60 F-15EX Fighter Jets
3- F-15SA Upgrade
4- Boeing 737-8 Aircraft
5- Patriot Air Defense Suite
6- Civil Nuclear Program
7- Artificial Intelligence and Technology Agreements
8- Supply of Thousands of NVIDIA Chips
9- Investments with Oracle
10- Investments with Google
11- Investments with AMD
12- AI Data Centers
13- Agreements between Aramco and Woodside
14- Agreements between Aramco and Energy
15- Agreements between Aramco and Commonwealth
16- Infrastructure Deals with AECOM
17- Infrastructure Deals with Parsons
18- Deals with National Security Agency
#CrownPrinceInAmerica

Zionist telegram channels crying.


Lapid: Sale of F-35s to Saudis was never part of normalization talks​


Opposition Leader Yair Lapid lashes out against the government’s “weakness,” following media reports that Israel does not object to the United States supplying Saudi Arabia with F-35 stealth fighter jets.

“As someone who participated in dozens of discussions on a normalization arrangement with Saudi Arabia, an F-35 deal was never part of a normalization agreement, because it was clear that Israel’s security requires maintaining its qualitative military edge,” states Lapid.

“It is unacceptable that due to the weakness of the government, we are giving up on Israeli security interests and allowing the F-35 deal.”

Israel has insisted that any transfer of such advanced aircraft be conditioned on the normalization of relations between Riyadh and Jerusalem, Channel 12 and Axios reported on Saturday.


Keep crying.

As we say in KSA:

كل زق كل زق

:ROFLMAO:

reminds me of the scene in batman where Bruce buys the restaurant , still have no idea why KSA signed the defense pact with us if they were going to do all of this
 

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