Mark my words. Tejas will be cancelled by year end.
IAF’s plans hit as Tejas delivery schedule goes for a toss because of GE engine delay
GE is said to have informed that it will deliver first 2 engines by September end. Even in best case scenario, IAF is unlikely to reach sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons by 2042.
theprint.in
New Delhi: Against a sanctioned strength of 42 fighter squadrons, the Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates 32, a majority of which is made up of Russian aircraft, either in need of upgrades to match modern warfare requirements or on the verge of retirement.
By the end of 2025, the squadron strength will plummet to mere 29 squadrons. This is because while two of the last remaining MiG 21 Bison squadrons will be phased out, its replacement – the Tejas Mk1 A – will not be coming in time.
Sources in the defence establishment said one of the main reasons for the delay in delivery of the much-needed fighters by the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is the lack of supply by the General Electric F404-IN20 engines that power the fighters.
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According to the contract signed between HAL and GE in August 2021, the American firm is supposed to deliver 99 engines starting March to cater to the IAF’s order for 83 LCA MK1A inked earlier that year.
GE is supposed to deliver engines at the rate which HAL is supposed to deliver the aircraft – 16 each financial year, according to the terms of contract.
However, it is learnt that GE has failed to deliver even a single engine to the state-run HAL.
Queries sent by ThePrint to the American aircraft engine supplier last week remained unanswered.
The sources said that GE has informed HAL that it would deliver the first two engines by the end of September. However, the IAF is not impressed. If at all GE meets the September deadline, the sources say there are questions about how many more engines will be delivered given what it claims are global “supply chain issues”.
It was in March that the first aircraft of the Tejas Mk-1A series, LA 5033, took to the skies. ThePrint then
reported that the delivery schedule was hit by at least four months if not more. It is now revealed that the entire delivery schedule has been hit badly.
The sources said that the first aircraft did not fly with a new engine but with Category B engines. Category B refers to reserve engines which may have been used in the past or those that came in and remained unused as part of an earlier deal with GE for the Tejas series.
While IAF is in a fix, HAL believes that it will be able to stick to the overall delivery schedule if GE delivers. The Indian aerospace manufacturer has set up a new production line in Nashik for LCA Mk-1As, besides the one in Bengaluru which can produce 16 aircraft in a year. Together, the HAL says it can produce 24 aircraft in a year.
However, the IAF remains sceptical because of past experience. The air force had already issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) to the HAL in April for additional 97 LCA Mark 1A fighters.
“What we need is aircraft. MiG 21 Bisons have to go next year and can’t fly anymore. The IAF is trying all it can to shore up numbers. We have put our weight behind the Tejas but actually delivery has to start,” a source in the defence establishment said, pointing out the growth in air strength of Pakistan and China.
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Forced to fly more, more tear & wear
Even though there are two squadrons of MiG 21 Bisons, the actual numbers are very few. And hence, the IAF has moved the Squadron deployed in Suratgarh to Nal air base near Bikaner, which houses the other remaining one.
The IAF’s dwindling numbers meant that several of its bases where the MiG 21s were based are now empty.
Asked how the IAF was managing empty bases, the sources explained that the area of responsibility for Su-30 MKI squadrons and others has increased.
“The area of responsibility for let’s say a SU-30 MKI squadron has now increased to cover what may have been that of two or three bases of MiG 21s. This is because the aircraft has more endurance and range than a MiG 21,” a source explained.
Asked if this meant that a regular aircraft would be clocking in more flying hours than what it would otherwise normally do, the source replied in affirmation.
More flying hours mean that the wear and tear, besides maintenance of the machines, will be more than in normal circumstances.
Qatar’s Mirages & MRFA
To arrest the decline in strength, the IAF is in the middle of negotiations with the Qatari Air Force for 12 used Mirage 2000 fighters.
The Qatari aircraft will come in with missiles and additional engines. The sources said that these aircraft have nearly 50 percent of their lifespan left and are maintained well by Qatar which now operates the Rafale, the Typhoon and the F-15.
However, these aircraft are not at the same standard as the upgraded Mirage 2000s that the IAF operates.
The sources explained it would be foolish to upgrade them since the cost would be very high and hence could be operated as a separate squadron. Since the cockpit and some other systems on board were different, the pilots would have to undergo certain training to fly them.
While these are all stop gap arrangements, what the IAF is really hoping for is the 114 multi-role fighter aircraft (MRFA), for which they had issued a Request for Proposal (RFI) a few years back.
However, the air force is yet to get clearance from the government to pursue the project and issue a tender. The main contenders for this project are — Rafale, F-15EX, Gripen, and F-21.
The front runner to bag the contract is the French Rafale fighter jets, 36 of which were inducted into the IAF under an emergency procurement in 2016.
IAF will not hit 42 Squadron mark even by 2042
ThePrint had
reported in 2019 that the IAF hit by ageing fleet, low serviceability and slow pace by HAL, is staring at an alarming fall in its muscle.
According to IAF projections back then, if the 36 Rafales, six squadrons of Tejas and two more squadrons of Su-30 MKI were taken into account, the squadron strength was projected at 27 by 2032
and a mere 19 by 2042.
It was then mentioned that even in the best case scenario, the IAF would not reach its sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons by 2042 even after taking into account the Tejas Mark 2, the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and 114 MRFA for which the tender is still not out five years later.
That is because starting 2030, the Mirages and the Jaguars, both upgraded, will start getting phased out. Even if all the three futuristic aircraft are inducted as planned, the squadron strength will still only be 37 by 2042. The last time the IAF had 42 squadrons was way back in 2002.
