Iranian Chill Thread

[Persian Gulf]

Yes we know all of this. Which makes me wonder why you think any blame can be put on anyone else other than the west for this situation?

you should read the conversation from the start

dear brother @muhammed45 is saying Rouhani and Zarif are responsible for the (failures of) JCPOA. I don't agree but I am saying that we should be fair and everyone who approved the deal should be responsible, not just those two.

@muhammed45 I hope I did not misrepresent anything you said

Yes Russia and China did vote for sanctions in the past, but have not since the JCPOA and their own alienation with the west since then. Which is why I don't think any sanctions will have teeth going forward.

even if true, Iran's nuclear file will be an open case at the UNSC and Iran will be eternally reliant on Russia and China vetoes to prevent a UNSC-authorised blockade of Iran (or worse)

you can see why this isn't an ideal situation for Iran

 

[Tehrani021]

it is a fact: you don't understand how the snapback mechanism works. stop being hilariously sensitive and defensive


if you have complaints about moderation you know where to take them


who is "they"? The Europeans do not want to torpedo the deal yet, they want to use their ability to snapback sanctions as leverage to coerce Iran into complying with the JCPOA by October 2025.


snapback doesn't care if others are complying, only if Iran is complying

possible


if I was laughably sensitive and wanted to make pointless drama about everything I would say this was a low quality personal insult. luckily for you I am not

It is your own conjecture and opinion, this is what is fact. You dont know how politics work either and it's laughable how sensetive you get when you get a taste of your own medicine. You know full well how I deal with issues like this and it wont change.

"They" is clearly the west, to even ask that shows how dishonest you are in this discussion. There has been no indication for a number of years that there will he a deal, so snapback sanctions should have happened by now if it were as easy as you say.

Snapbacks wont work when Russia and China circumvent them due to how dishonestly they were put on Iran and how nobody was complying with the deal.

 

[mangekyo]

Indeed: they were forced to accept Iranian enrichment even in the interim 15 year period and ultimately enrichment with no limits after 15 years.

Some mistakes were made: one sided snapback mechanism and irreversible modifications to Arak. But we don't know if a deal without these would have been possible. US had a hard time selling the deal domestically even with these provisions.

Well, Zarif himself said that both sides were unhappy with the deal, but it was the best US could get, the best Iran could get and the best the international community could get.

Then why would we even talk to them in the first place?

The only thing that matters is Iran, Iran and Iran and its national progress.

Because 1. Less sanctions are still better than more. 2. Our economy was booming after JCPOA. 3. The deal wasn't between Iran and the US only. It was between Iran, US and the international community.

 

[Persian Gulf]

It is your own conjecture and opinion, this is what is fact. You dont know how politics work either and it's laughable how sensetive you get when you get a taste of your own medicine. You know full well how I deal with issues like this and it wont change.

projecting

"They" is clearly the west, to even ask that shows how dishonest you are in this discussion. There has been no indication for a number of years that there will he a deal, so snapback sanctions should have happened by now if it were as easy as you say.

they don't want to torpedo the deal prematurely, the sanctions are almost in full force now anyway. Iran's response to snapback is also a factor they take into account.

ultimately it will come down to: risk of Iran's response (enriching to 90%? withdrawing from NPT?) vs risk of closing UNSC nuclear file permanently. if Iran takes the drastic steps of enriching to 90% or withdrawing from the NPT, it will be back in the UNSC and even China/Russia may be less sympathetic to Iran.

The same Russia and China that recently signed joint declarations with UAE about the Iranian Islands in the Persian Gulf by the way. I wouldn't want to be reliant on those guys.

 

[Tehrani021]

you should read the conversation from the start

dear brother @muhammed45 is saying Rouhani and Zarif are responsible for the (failures of) JCPOA. I don't agree but I am saying that we should be fair and everyone who approved the deal should be responsible, not just those two.

@muhammed45 I hope I did not misrepresent anything you said


even if true, Iran's nuclear file will be an open case at the UNSC and Iran will be eternally reliant on Russia and China vetoes to prevent a UNSC-authorised blockade of Iran (or worse)

you can see why this isn't an ideal situation for Iran

The fact is the deal was a good one had everyone been an honest party to the deal, and as we have seen it was one side only that failed in this. You can't make deal with people who constantly break them. These are international norms as well as Islamic Law.

Well seeing as Iran is getting closer to Russia and China, I can't see how that will be an issue in the foreseeable future. Nothing wrong with being reliant on others at the UN, just look at what Israel have been getting away with on the back of US reliance. I think the issue is being overstated as things have changed since 2011 when Iran would get sanctioned by the world.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Well, Zarif himself said that both sides were unhappy with the deal, but it was the best US could get, the best Iran could get and the best the international community could get.

every negotiator will say this, we will never know the truth

but certainly we can say insufficient attention was paid to the prospect of one (non-Iran) party violating the deal and we see that in how one-sided the snapback mechanism is

 

[Persian Gulf]

The fact is the deal was a good one had everyone been an honest party to the deal, and as we have seen it was one side only that failed in this. You can't make deal with people who constantly break them. These are international norms as well as Islamic Law.

I do not disagree

Well seeing as Iran is getting closer to Russia and China, I can't see how that will be an issue in the foreseeable future.

Iran foreign ministry summons Chinese ambassador

TEHRAN, Jun. 02 (MNA) –Iran's foreign ministry summoned Chinese Ambassador to Iran Cong Peiwu regarding China's support for the baseless claims in paragraph 26 of the final statement of the joint meeting between China and the UAE.

en.mehrnews.com

"Following the repetition of the Chinese government's support for the baseless claims in paragraph 26 of the final statement of the joint meeting between China and the United Arab Emirates, the Chinese ambassador in Tehran was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday and Iran's protest was submitted to him."

this was 4 days ago.

Nothing wrong with being reliant on others at the UN

very naive

 

[mangekyo]

every negotiator will say this, we will never know the truth

but certainly we can say insufficient attention will paid to the prospect of one (non-Iran) party violating the deal and how one-sided the snapback mechanism is

I see your point. But it was probably a risk we had and were willing to take. Let's pretend the deal never happened in the first place. Would it have changed anything?

 

[Tehrani021]

projecting

they don't want to torpedo the deal prematurely, the sanctions are almost in full force now anyway. Iran's response to snapback is also a factor they take into account.

ultimately it will come down to: risk of Iran's response (enriching to 90%? withdrawing from NPT?) vs risk of closing UNSC nuclear file permanently. if Iran takes the drastic steps of enriching to 90% or withdrawing from the NPT, it will be back in the NPT and even China/Russia may be less sympathetic to Iran.

The same Russia and China that signed joint declarations with UAE about the Iranian Islands in the Persian Gulf by the way. I wouldn't want to be reliant on those guys.

Im just mirroring you!

Prematurely?! Are you serious? The deal has been dead for almost 2 years with no negotiations done or planned. Snapbacks ought to have happened by now. There are NO UNSC sanctions on Iran, just some unilateral ones so I dont know what you're on about there.

Stop conflating issues! The island thing was just politics and keeping up appearances between Russia and Arab states, so they leave the sphere of western influence. They have no weight in terms of enforcement. US has been bailing out Israel at the UN all the time, and even they occasionally criticise Israel from time to time. Big deal!

 

[Persian Gulf]

I see your point. But it was probably a risk we had and were willing to take. Let's pretend the deal never happened in the first place. Would it have changed anything?

given how conservative IRI is, probably not...

a lot of people in Iran would probably blame the IRI for not reaching a deal though and they would have much more anger... so from that perspective, being able to blame failure of JCPOA on USA (correctly) was useful domestically

 

[Tehrani021]

I do not disagree

Iran foreign ministry summons Chinese ambassador

TEHRAN, Jun. 02 (MNA) –Iran's foreign ministry summoned Chinese Ambassador to Iran Cong Peiwu regarding China's support for the baseless claims in paragraph 26 of the final statement of the joint meeting between China and the UAE.

en.mehrnews.com

"Following the repetition of the Chinese government's support for the baseless claims in paragraph 26 of the final statement of the joint meeting between China and the United Arab Emirates, the Chinese ambassador in Tehran was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday and Iran's protest was submitted to him."

this was 4 days ago.


very naive

Yeah this is not a big deal, this happens occasionally but notice it never goes beyond statements and photo-ops. Again you're overstating the issue and using emotions to evaluate political moves like this.

No, it's just reality and being practical.

 

[mangekyo]

given how conservative IRI is, probably not...

a lot of people in Iran would probably blame the IRI for not reaching a deal though and they would have much more anger... so from that perspective, being able to blame failure of JCPOA on USA (correctly) was useful domestically

People in Iran are angry about a lot of things. Thats just one thing they can remove from the list. Not a big deal. In reality, it doesn't change anything.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Im just mirroring you!

imitation is the best form of flattery

Prematurely?! Are you serious? The deal has been dead for almost 2 years with no negotiations done or planned. Snapbacks ought to have happened by now.

they still hope to keep the deal alive and don't want to kill it entirely. snapback is ultimate card only to be played once and in last resort

There are NO UNSC sanctions on Iran, just some unilateral ones so I dont know what you're on about there.

when JCPOA was signed, Iran signed deals with Boeing and Airbus

After US left JCPOA, those deals were cancelled

hence, "the sanctions are almost in full force now anyway". de facto impact of US sanctions means UNSC sanctions might as well be in force.

Stop conflating issues! The island thing was just politics and keeping up appearances between Russia and Arab states, so they leave the sphere of western influence. They have no weight in terms of enforcement.

China and Russia are not permanent allies and are willing to sell Iran's sovereignty and you want our future to be dependent on their vetoes for all eternity

US has been bailing out Israel at the UN all the time, and even they occasionally criticise Israel from time to time. Big deal!

Iran is as important to Russia/China as Israel is to USA? next joke please

 

[Persian Gulf]

People in Iran are angry about a lot of things. Thats just one thing they can remove from the list. Not a big deal. In reality, it doesn't change anything.

I am not sure. back then it was the number 1 issue for people and I am sure people would blame IRI if they didn't try to reach a deal to lift sanctions

 

[mangekyo]

I am not sure. back then it was the number 1 issue for people and I am sure people would blame IRI if they didn't try to reach a deal to lift sanctions

Thats not what I meant. A lot of people are suggesting that the problems we are facing today is because of that deal. Let's say in a parallel universe, there were never any talks of a deal at all, the JCPOA never happened, there was no snapback mechanism. Let's even go as far as pretending Zarif and Rouhani weren't even born in that universe. Is Iran in that universe any different from the current Iran?