J-31 to be inducted soon| Pilot training reportedly in progress

[Jamie]

Not again Deino, what is the issue with you dear?
You may be the most knowledgeable poster on Chinese hardware in the World but you are certainly not an employee in Shenyang. Do you even know how many Pakistani Engineers have been seconded by various Chinese aircraft manufacturers including Chengdu, Nanchang, and Shenyang over the years?

The answer is a big NO because all these matters are between Govt to Govt. I say that because one of my cousins served there, who retired as an Air Commodore in the PAF. Pakistanis along with others have been giving their input for decades, the Chinese are grateful for their modernization efforts.

When the top men in the PAF declare the induction and training of the J31, it does not mean they are receiving the jets in the next decade. It means they have sorted out all the modalities and are ready to receive the production models.

It may sound like a surprise to you but this is how our procurements work. We waited for India to waste its resources on Rafale and in the meantime worked on the J31 procurement. Had we declared it earlier the Indians would have gone on the Stealth aircraft procurement rampage all over the World. An insight into our F16 procurement and the Indian NIGHTMARE spanning over five decades will be helpful.

So sir we value your precious input but please don't act as a spoiler in our happiness, it is below your stature. And certainly, if the Jets don't arrive within the next 18-24 months, we will apologize and hope you do the same if it happens.

M8 it becomes a hard thing to believe…
If negotiations have been going for the previous 5-6 years… no rumors or leaks emerged earlier
If 5-6 prototypes have been flying for the past year why no pictures? Even rumors of them on chinese blogs?
Even if it is completely ready with testing done do you seriously expect they have a manufacturing line up and running or coming online within the next year?
Why would SAC prioritize j-31 production over navalized j-35? Surely the PLAN will over the course of the next decade order more jets than what PAF would go for. So why would they prioritize us ?

These realities makes it impossible for it to appear in a year or two over Pakistan skies.

Even I have been hearing rumors from close members but no one confirms any time line.
Just the phrase soon. Even 28-29 is hell of alot sooner considering how military projects and accusations go.
You can’t blame @Deino for ripping his hair out watching posts like these

 

[Oscar]

J-31 discussion more toxic than a Swifties discussion on the next Era’s tour venue.

it gets so ugly of people arguing here about when this J-31 will be inducted.

excluding those who knows shit of the knowledge and are only taking sides or pooling in for their post count ...

what is so silly is that people who consider themselves by their own benchmark or a hype given by other people/members, are engaged in silly discussion.

i mean what is the problem with you guys. i think it is time moderators jump in.

it has been always pleasant to read or listen to the learned members so let it be this way and get along with it, this reminds me of PakDef.

forum standard is going down also because of newcomers who better be learning something here are involved in active discussion with no knowledge hence no constructive pool.

discussion must be towards technology, capability and performance and not about induction time this and that. if it is coming it will be (later or sooner)
what difference will it make if it comes a year earlier or later. will it fix a medal to the chest who wins?

and IAF is no cheap third class air force to deal with. there has always been a competition among IAF & PAF. they will come up with a better solution to neutralize J-31 threat. limitations are on this side of the border and PAF is doing fine to handle it. so let's give a respect to this competition.

Question is - what exactly is to be moderated in a cock fight where the cocks don’t have any visual proof other than “I have a cock!”?

It’s a question of schrodingers cock - its in the box. It’s both there and not there so what can a moderator do?

I can say there is a cock in the box but then it will be a side but then it also equally probably based on it being an opaque box that it is there.

 

[onlinpunit]

J-31 discussion more toxic than a Swifties discussion on the next Era’s tour venue.

Question is - what exactly is to be moderated in a cock fight where the cocks don’t have any visual proof other than “I have a cock!”?

It’s a question of schrodingers cock - its in the box. It’s both there and not there so what can a moderator do?

I can say there is a cock in the box but then it will be a side but then it also equally probably based on it being an opaque box that it is there.

Reminds me of the Old PDF F 16 Block 70 thread by a distinguished member !

 

[Ghseean]

J-31 discussion more toxic than a Swifties discussion on the next Era’s tour venue.

Question is - what exactly is to be moderated in a cock fight where the cocks don’t have any visual proof other than “I have a cock!”?

It’s a question of schrodingers cock - its in the box. It’s both there and not there so what can a moderator do?

I can say there is a cock in the box but then it will be a side but then it also equally probably based on it being an opaque box that it is there.

i thank you for defining the situation by giving a said example.

not knowing velocity and position, one can claim bolt upright,

in fact, better treat ED.

 

[Ali_Baba]

J-31 discussion more toxic than a Swifties discussion on the next Era’s tour venue.

Question is - what exactly is to be moderated in a cock fight where the cocks don’t have any visual proof other than “I have a cock!”?

It’s a question of schrodingers cock - its in the box. It’s both there and not there so what can a moderator do?

I can say there is a cock in the box but then it will be a side but then it also equally probably based on it being an opaque box that it is there.

Beautiful metaphor - love it !!! Explains things how i would !!!

 

[NGAD IS THE BEST]

Ok anything else?

Go do believe your imaginary additional prototypes of J-31, no need to keep additional prototypes secret YOU'RE living in fantasy world and lala land

 

[MirageBlue]

That is not the point, even the US and China, which eclipse India do not have as many ongoing projects in development combined!

China

FC-31/J-35
6th Gen

US

NGAD - USAF
NGAD - USN

India

Tejas Mk1/Mk1A
Tejas MK2
ORCA
TEDBF
AMCA


Every country has a finite amount of resources and even Japan/UK/Italy need to combined resources for 1 single fighter. India attempting 5 on it's own is madness.

Tejas Mk1 is already delivered and weapons integration work is no longer with DRDO/ADA etc. It is with the IAF's Software Development Institute. No more design or new development work as such for it, apart from integration of new weapons.

The IAF and IN have the following active projects:
- Tejas Mk1A (in production, deliveries to begin)
- Tejas Mk2 (in design and development statge, CCS cleared funds, prototype being fabricated)
- AMCA (in design and development stage, CCS cleared funds, prototype fabrication to begin)
- TEDBF (in design stage, CCS not yet cleared)

There is no ORCA. IAF has no interest in that when it can get the AMCA instead.

Now, between Tejas Mk1A/Tejas Mk2/AMCA and TEDBF, there is a very high degree of commonality in systems, software, avionics, LRUs, etc. That helps in reducing the development cost and time for the systems that are needed.

So what is being developed for Tejas Mk1A is being used on Tejas Mk2, and it will then be further scaled up/upgraded when it is used for AMCA and TEDBF given they're bigger fighters with more power on board.

Except for Tejas Mk2 and AMCA the projects were sequential. With finite number of designers/scientists/engineers, they mostly moved from one project to another at the completion of stages. Tejas Mk1A to Mk2 -> Mk2 to AMCA -> AMCA to TEDBF

Not ideal in some ways, but in some ways it is creating a massive ecosystem of Indian suppliers who can see close to 400 indigenous fighters being ordered in the next 15 years. That's a whole lot of business.

The US has the following active projects:
F-15X - USAF
Super Hornet - USN (still being delivered though at the fag end of it's production cycle)
T-7A trainer and possible light fighter derivative from that (in design and development with a large production run to come)
F-35A/B/C (being upgraded and in production)
Next Gen AD for USAF and USN

 

[MirageBlue]

You really need to read into history to understand that what effect the PAF acquirment of F-16s had on Indian psyche.
Mrs Gandhi virtually went berserk at Washington. By IAF'S own admission, PAF'S 40 F-16s forced New Delhi to purchase over 200 various fighter aircraft. Rafale I'm sure is an excellent aircraft but it's purchase didn't exactly forced PAF to run around , instead it calmly inducted the J-10s and armed with PL-15 Missiles, PAF is satisfied that if any imbalance existed then it has been restored.
Not sure either what he meant by 14 years.

40 F-16s were responded to by the following:

-1 squadron of MiG-23MFs. No match for F-16s though they were BVRAAM equipped, but they were essentially stop gap till the Mirage-2000s arrived.
-2 squadrons of Mirage-2000s. Approximately 50 jets.
-3 squadrons of MiG-29s. Approximately 80 jets. Bought at friendship prices. Bad decision IMO, because it blocked and eventually ended the option to license produce Mirage-2000s at HAL Bangalore.

Not sure how you got to 200 for the IAF in the 1980s.

 

[CombatCorner]

40 F-16s were responded to by the following:

-1 squadron of MiG-23MFs. No match for F-16s though they were BVRAAM equipped, but they were essentially stop gap till the Mirage-2000s arrived.
-2 squadrons of Mirage-2000s. Approximately 50 jets.
-3 squadrons of MiG-29s. Approximately 80 jets. Bought at friendship prices. Bad decision IMO, because it blocked and eventually ended the option to license produce Mirage-2000s at HAL Bangalore.

Not sure how you got to 200 for the IAF in the 1980s.

The disclosure was made by Pushpinder Singh in his book on PAF.
Your detail on the number of MiG-23s acquired is nowhere near that were in IAF service. Variant models in total were well over 150.

 

[Oscar]

i thank you for defining the situation by giving a said example.

not knowing velocity and position, one can claim bolt upright,

in fact, better treat ED.

What do roosters have to do with Eagle Dynamics

The question here is simple - with all of the Chinese aviation fans who look out at different development sites taking pictures and discussing among themselves - there is still only consensus on one prototype.

Then, let’s assume that prototype has provided all the data needed since digital twinning allows for verification of a lot of flight parameters - there is still the aspect of a production line.

This isn’t a small UAV you 3d print everything and even with that approach those take a while to scale.

So where did all the jigs for production come from overnight. Even if you have 5 prototypes all flying and everyone is being fooled by serial number obfuscation (highly unlikely) - it takes time to go from Prototype to Serial production examples then IOC state and then FOC.

Those citing the J-10C acquisition as an example of speed are either unwillingly ignoring and willingly delusional, willingly ignorant and delusional or a somewhere in the gray.

I’m a firm believer now in “Think again” which means I happily accept where I am wrong and learn but based on all technical requirements for aircraft manufacturing and in this case 5th gen aircraft manufacturing all these overly optimistic timelines are likely just misread cyclic rumors and more so my read is a mix of faux pax and someone in the PAF trying to bait the IAF into being hasty on certain decisions they have been holding off on.

That’s all I want to say on the matter - not much to “moderate” on regardless of the complaints of “lowered standards”.

What I can do is advise where the discussion should be.

1. What is expected to be on the J-31 based on known equipment present on the J-10C and J-20 @Michael can provide great insight I believe

2. What challenges will be faced in integrating the J-31 with its maintenance requirements vis a vis LO and data systems within the PAF - Link-17 had growth built in but a new datalink or rather data mesh will be required

3. How will those aspects change how the PAF fights? There are people with exposure on 5th gen operational concepts but nothing deep and especially very few of the current crop in command. There will be 3-4 years needed even post induction for PAF to work out within CCS tactics folks on how to employ it effectively

 

[Michael]

What do roosters have to do with Eagle Dynamics

The question here is simple - with all of the Chinese aviation fans who look out at different development sites taking pictures and discussing among themselves - there is still only consensus on one prototype.

Then, let’s assume that prototype has provided all the data needed since digital twinning allows for verification of a lot of flight parameters - there is still the aspect of a production line.

This isn’t a small UAV you 3d print everything and even with that approach those take a while to scale.

So where did all the jigs for production come from overnight. Even if you have 5 prototypes all flying and everyone is being fooled by serial number obfuscation (highly unlikely) - it takes time to go from Prototype to Serial production examples then IOC state and then FOC.

Those citing the J-10C acquisition as an example of speed are either unwillingly ignoring and willingly delusional, willingly ignorant and delusional or a somewhere in the gray.

I’m a firm believer now in “Think again” which means I happily accept where I am wrong and learn but based on all technical requirements for aircraft manufacturing and in this case 5th gen aircraft manufacturing all these overly optimistic timelines are likely just misread cyclic rumors and more so my read is a mix of faux pax and someone in the PAF trying to bait the IAF into being hasty on certain decisions they have been holding off on.

That’s all I want to say on the matter - not much to “moderate” on regardless of the complaints of “lowered standards”.

What I can do is advise where the discussion should be.

1. What is expected to be on the J-31 based on known equipment present on the J-10C and J-20 @Michael can provide great insight I believe

2. What challenges will be faced in integrating the J-31 with its maintenance requirements vis a vis LO and data systems within the PAF - Link-17 had growth built in but a new datalink or rather data mesh will be required

3. How will those aspects change how the PAF fights? There are people with exposure on 5th gen operational concepts but nothing deep and especially very few of the current crop in command. There will be 3-4 years needed even post induction for PAF to work out within CCS tactics folks on how to employ it effectively

Very excellent summary!

Any simple conclusion is based on a very large body of evidence. If we only provide conclusions, it will lose credibility and will not help any academic research. The joy of military fans lies in these painful processes of analysis, not in the final conclusions.

Let's try to expand this question one by one, and you'll find it very interesting. (These logics are suitable for trading behavior in any area)

1. Willingness to sign a contract
Is Pakistan willing to buy FC31?Does Pakistan have enough environmental support to buy FC31?Is China willing to sell FC31 to Pakistan? Does China have the capacity to provide FC31?

2. Ability to perform the contract
Can the PAF pay the SAC under the contract? Will SAC be able to deliver FC31 to PAF under contract?

If we do a deep analysis of these issues, you will find that more problems will arise. As a result, a large and complex system of tree problems emerged.

It has only one final conclusion: when will PAF get FC31............

If you're still wondering, you can try to load all the analysis provided in this 100+ page thread into this tree problem system. I'm sure you'll be in for a lot of surprises!

As for what's in the future of PAF's FC31, that will be a separate tree problem system....................

 

[Ghseean]

What do roosters have to do with Eagle Dynamics

The question here is simple - with all of the Chinese aviation fans who look out at different development sites taking pictures and discussing among themselves - there is still only consensus on one prototype.

Then, let’s assume that prototype has provided all the data needed since digital twinning allows for verification of a lot of flight parameters - there is still the aspect of a production line.

This isn’t a small UAV you 3d print everything and even with that approach those take a while to scale.

So where did all the jigs for production come from overnight. Even if you have 5 prototypes all flying and everyone is being fooled by serial number obfuscation (highly unlikely) - it takes time to go from Prototype to Serial production examples then IOC state and then FOC.

Those citing the J-10C acquisition as an example of speed are either unwillingly ignoring and willingly delusional, willingly ignorant and delusional or a somewhere in the gray.

I’m a firm believer now in “Think again” which means I happily accept where I am wrong and learn but based on all technical requirements for aircraft manufacturing and in this case 5th gen aircraft manufacturing all these overly optimistic timelines are likely just misread cyclic rumors and more so my read is a mix of faux pax and someone in the PAF trying to bait the IAF into being hasty on certain decisions they have been holding off on.

That’s all I want to say on the matter - not much to “moderate” on regardless of the complaints of “lowered standards”.

What I can do is advise where the discussion should be.

1. What is expected to be on the J-31 based on known equipment present on the J-10C and J-20 @Michael can provide great insight I believe

2. What challenges will be faced in integrating the J-31 with its maintenance requirements vis a vis LO and data systems within the PAF - Link-17 had growth built in but a new datalink or rather data mesh will be required

3. How will those aspects change how the PAF fights? There are people with exposure on 5th gen operational concepts but nothing deep and especially very few of the current crop in command. There will be 3-4 years needed even post induction for PAF to work out within CCS tactics folks on how to employ it effectively

you have very valid points including single prototype, missing production line, IOC and FOC.

i agree with the J-10C induction process. It was already in the works way back before any announcement or news leak.

same can be a possibility for this new acquisition but induction timeline is anyone's guess. since both sides base their expected induction with 2-4 years apart from each other, it may lie somewhere in between.

we know for maintenance requirements, training is always aligned before/with the arrival of planes with technical staff training beforehand.

true, when we talk about training on 5th gen fighter, it takes time for any air force introduced with the next league of fighter planes, especially 5th generation.

probably there will be a full mission simulator like F-35, that trains the pilots with the technology and controls in the jet.

 

[Deino]

Very excellent summary!

Any simple conclusion is based on a very large body of evidence. If we only provide conclusions, it will lose credibility and will not help any academic research. The joy of military fans lies in these painful processes of analysis, not in the final conclusions.

Let's try to expand this question one by one, and you'll find it very interesting. (These logics are suitable for trading behavior in any area)

1. Willingness to sign a contract
Is Pakistan willing to buy FC31?Does Pakistan have enough environmental support to buy FC31?Is China willing to sell FC31 to Pakistan? Does China have the capacity to provide FC31?

2. Ability to perform the contract
Can the PAF pay the SAC under the contract? Will SAC be able to deliver FC31 to PAF under contract?

If we do a deep analysis of these issues, you will find that more problems will arise. As a result, a large and complex system of tree problems emerged.

It has only one final conclusion: when will PAF get FC31............

If you're still wondering, you can try to load all the analysis provided in this 100+ page thread into this tree problem system. I'm sure you'll be in for a lot of surprises!

As for what's in the future of PAF's FC31, that will be a separate tree problem system....................

A brilliant post as always from you, thanks a lot!

The problem however is, the result of this "tree problem system" is one that does not fit the wishful-thinking or dreams or several members here and so in consequence they are deliberately cutting of all branches, which could lead to a result that does not fit their dreams and so in the end we get: Pakistan will receive its first J-31s in mid/late 2025!

 

[Michael]

A brilliant post as always from you, thanks a lot!

The problem however is, the result of this "tree problem system" is one that does not fit the wishful-thinking or dreams or several members here and so in consequence they are deliberately cutting of all branches, which could lead to a result that does not fit their dreams and so in the end we get: Pakistan will receive its first J-31s in mid/late 2025!

道不同不相为谋, 志不同不相为友.

From Confucius's Analects

Meaning: People who take different paths can't plan together, and people with different aspirations can't be friends for a long time.

 

[Deino]

Interesting news via one of the credible sources ...

The #Pakistan Air Force is considering to procure the J-35 fifth generation fighter instead of the J-31 for it’s first batch of the PAF Gyrfalcon NGFA acquisition, as the J-31 will reach production maturity needed for export much later, and the PAF wants a stealth fighter aircraft within the next few years.
Later batches will be the J-31 fighter aircraft as it reaches production level development stage.
No PAF pilot has yet been sent to China for fighter training on the Gyrfalcon fifth generation stealth fighter, however the PAF intends to send pilots over for conversion training within the 2024-2025 timeframe.

via

https://twitter.com/x/status/1831322878152774012

Interesting since it confirms my scepticism regarding "Pakistan will receive its J-31 as early as mid/late 2025" & also regarding the training ... but I also don't believe that the PLAN will give then -35 soon, they will need them all for their own units & training. But let's wait and see.