Melaca strait China's vulnerability? Is it true or Myth?

Christmas Island is a small island It will be incinerated in no time The same with Diego Garcia. But we are talking about submarines here How are they going to detect submarines in vast ocean?

My point is No Indian or any other navy doesn't have free hand in blocking the Straits of Malacca There are other ways to frustrate any attempt to block it. Chinese bomber and J 16 fly from Yunnan will make mince meat out of Indian navy

The ocean is vast I don't think US or any other nation has the resources to police all the waterways.

I think you first complete your geography course and then come for an argument..... routes can be 100s.... but coastline you have is only single..... Ultimately you have to either come out or go into China and you have only single coast for this purpose that too surrounded by hostile neighbors sitting on island chains....

Your ships can go via Antarctica or south pole Ultimately they have to either leave your east coast or they have to reach your east coast..... USA and allies just have to take care of a blockade here they don't need to police all the waterways worldwide to punish China..... have a look at below map

 
IMO I think the PLA planners will first try secure those tiny Island North of Luzon and not mad enough to send their prized ships outside the protective cover of China's land based jets.

Their main goal is Taiwan, and for something the size and complexity of Taiwan, they hardly have any spare to secure the Malacca. Whatever imports will be done via land which the BRI has helped a lot when it comes to infrastructure, reducing over dependence on seaborne cargo.
 
The chance, Big country in war with another Big country is very very low

The possible future war is the Big/much Stronger country make aggression to the smaller and weaker country like Russia vs Ukraine, Israel vs Palestine and Lebanon

If China for example attack Taiwan, I doubt US will enter the war directly. And no, India will also not join. India will not even send any ammunition to Taiwan, trust me.....
 
The route #2 is optimal for fast and heavy SSN, something like the USN Seawolf or the SSN-AUKUS under construction and the PLAN Type 95. Because unlike the Malacca strait (part of the Sunda Shelf), the Banda sea is very DEEP.

Problem for China is:
  1. China doesn't have that many SSN, and from the look of it prefers to invest in SSKs for near sea denial
  2. China's SSN will be out of reach of PLAAF/PLAN air power while Western forces ASW planes operating in route #2,3 and 4 will be enjoying unmatched freedom in patrolling, detecting and hunting hostile enemy sub. Because they could fly from either Darwin or Papua Nugini and the small Pacific states.
12th-and-Final-P-8A-Poseidon-MPA-Arrived-in-Australia-2.jpg
What do you mean China doesn't have many SSN She surely has many subs. They have recently launched 7 new 93 B and more to come. Did you read the article by Beijingwalker? As I said before any attempt to block the strait is a declaration of WW III.

The same argument can be made China can fly J16 from the bases in Cambodia or Yunan to hammer any ship trying to block the Malacca straits. Finding a Submarine is not as easy as you think.

I am not sure if those ASW planes can have a free hand either Chinese fighter flying from SCS island base will shred those ASW plane in no time
Shenyang J-16
Aircraft model

Description​

The Shenyang J-16 Hidden Dragon is a Chinese 4.5 generation, tandem-seat, twinjet, multirole strike fighter built by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and operated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force. Wikipedia
Top speed: 1,535 mph
Engine type: Shenyang WS-10
Range: 2,423 mi
First flight: October 2011
Length: 72′
Manufacturer: Shenyang Aircraft Corporation
Weight: 39,020 lbs

1725649352977.png
 
IMO I think the PLA planners will first try secure those tiny Island North of Luzon and not mad enough to send their prized ships outside the protective cover of China's land based jets.

Their main goal is Taiwan, and for something the size and complexity of Taiwan, they hardly have any spare to secure the Malacca. Whatever imports will be done via land which the BRI has helped a lot when it comes to infrastructure, reducing over dependence on seaborne cargo.
The same can be said of any attempt to blockade Malacca Strait is just madness! Can't be done without risking WW III

Taiwan will be reunited and the Chinese are patient and wait for an opportune time to make their move They have nothing to lose time is on their side
 
The chance, Big country in war with another Big country is very very low

The possible future war is the Big/much Stronger country make aggression to the smaller and weaker country like Russia vs Ukraine, Israel vs Palestine and Lebanon

If China for example attack Taiwan, I doubt US will enter the war directly. And no, India will also not join. India will not even send any ammunition to Taiwan, trust me.....
Thats been my point in this thread, I guess people like to have some war games fun.
 
What do you mean China doesn't have many SSN She surely has many subs. They have recently launched 7 new 93 B and more to come. Did you read the article by Beijingwalker? As I said before any attempt to block the strait is a declaration of WW III.

The same argument can be made China can fly J16 from the bases in Cambodia or Yunan to hammer any ship trying to block the Malacca straits. Finding a Submarine is not as easy as you think.

I am not sure if those ASW planes can have a free hand either Chinese fighter flying from SCS island base will shred those ASW plane in no time
Shenyang J-16
Aircraft model

Description​

The Shenyang J-16 Hidden Dragon is a Chinese 4.5 generation, tandem-seat, twinjet, multirole strike fighter built by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and operated by the People's Liberation Army Air Force. Wikipedia
Top speed: 1,535 mph
Engine type: Shenyang WS-10
Range: 2,423 mi
First flight: October 2011
Length: 72′
Manufacturer: Shenyang Aircraft Corporation
Weight: 39,020 lbs

View attachment 63436

1. PLAN doesn't operate many SSN, most of its fleet are SSKs, and whatever SSN it has it's not on par with the latest USN SSN.

2. I see that you just draw a straight line on top of Borneo and your straight line happens to be right on top of Nusantara, Indonesia's new capital city


It's one thing to operate planes on top of water, where Indonesian air sovereignty only covers it until the littoral (12 miles).

Its another thing to try fly your plane on top of a land mass, and on top of other country capital cities.

At least 2 countries will join force to shoot your planes if you fly on that line you draw:
  1. Malaysia
  2. Indonesia
The Nusantara capital city airspace will be the most protected airspace in the entire country. The F-15EX will be (rumored) stationed there in addition to the Rafales in nearby Balikpapan, also in Borneo.
In fact Nusantara (IKN) will be base to an entire air force comprised of AWACS, Tankers, EW planes, IADS, 3 new radar station, OTHR radar etc

458141421_122178712838211399_1204094334945660521_n.jpg

458141421_122178712838211399_1204094334945660521_n.translated.jpg
458221168_122178711740211399_6652188961841427435_n.jpg


I don't think the CCP would risk dragging Indonesia to war by flying on top of Borneo.
 
China has plenty of Submarines and more are coming right now there are at least 6 9IIIA and 6 9IIIB SSN plus 7 SLBM.

As I said, Malaysia is a minow and won't do anything in the war over the Pacific. The same with Indo. Inviting the US to Indo is making Indo a bull eye. Allowing US or Australian planes to operate in the Java Sea is taking sides. Lombok Strait is an international sea passageThe Indo Air Force consists of 2 or 3 brigades of Su 27 and another 2 or 3 brigades of Old F16. Maybe 1 brigade of F15. Is that enough to face the Chinese air. force? Malaysia does not have a defense treaty with Indo what makes you think Malaysia will do that?
 
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As I said, Malaysia is a minow and won't do anything in the war over the Pacific. The same with Indo. Inviting the US to Indo is making Indo a bull eye.
Off course, this is the same guy who believes that China could just walk into Malaysia from Thailand because his whims says Thailand will just let it.

There's a reason, why you are yet to apply this brilliant strategy of yours where it matters... The PLA HQ. 😅😅
 
Simulating the IOR: Strategic Maritime Defense Against Chinese Naval Advancements

Alright, here's how I think we can really step up and lock down our maritime defenses. First off, we need to deploy three 800 km BrahMos batteries, along with an ASBM and SMART battery under A&N command. Same goes for Tamil Nadu and Kochi—one battery each of ASBM, SMART, and BrahMos, all backed by a fleet of six or more C-295s armed with BrahMos ALCMs. This setup would give us massive range and strike capability across the Indian Ocean.

Next, we need to get serious about underwater surveillance. Placing SOSUS systems around Malacca and Sri Lanka would give us early warning and tracking on enemy subs. Plus, we should buy six more P-8Is for air patrols, and throw in two Arihant-class SSGNs to boost our underwater muscle. We also need to build up ELINT infrastructure on the Cocos Islands and Seychelles, along with deploying some dedicated satellites. With all this, we’d be able to target any Chinese force in the IOR from up to 1500 km away.

Now, to counter the three key straits that China might use, they’ll likely push for a permanent presence in Africa and start paying more visits to BD and PK. But here’s the thing—if we play our cards right and buy the right systems, we can maintain local superiority in the IOR without breaking the bank.

We should also deploy Agni Prime missiles with 1000-1500 km range in A&N and Kochi, and maybe a few mobile launchers on Agalega. That setup would be a nightmare for any enemy trying to move in the IOR. Plus, SMART missiles can cover potential enemy ports in the neighborhood, while BrahMos keeps their fleets 800 km from our coasts. Honestly, even if we don’t have a huge fleet out there, we can still mess with any enemy forces just from land-based systems. The Arabian Sea? We could turn it into our personal swimming pool, no joke.
1725712175592.png
By placing sensors from Sri Lanka to A&N in a line, we can lock down that entire region, and with NGMVs patrolling, our eastern fleet would be free to go hunt Chinese ships across the IOR with carriers, frigates, and destroyers. And to put the final nail in Pakistan’s coffin, we should set up similar batteries in Mumbai and Gujarat. That would choke them out entirely—forcing them to sneak supplies through Iranian waters, which we could still block by stationing our warships near Aden.

In my opinion, we need to revive the 1971-style missile boat squadrons. Think about it: four NGMVs each for A&N, Vizag, Mumbai, Kochi, and Lakshadweep—20 boats total, maxing out at $220 million each. That, combined with missile batteries, would have Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia locked down. We could also add a squadron of TEDBFs or Tejas Mk1As for maritime strikes out of Gujarat, just to really send the message home.

With all that in place, Pakistan wouldn’t sleep at night—they’d be haunted by the thought of a repeat of Operation Python 2.0. And we’d be sitting pretty with total control over the Arabian Sea and beyond. That's covering the whole IOR as our lake, from Malaysia to Africa, one piece of our ocean to rule it.
 
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Simulating the IOR: Strategic Maritime Defense Against Chinese Naval Advancements

Alright, here's how I think we can really step up and lock down our maritime defenses. First off, we need to deploy three 800 km BrahMos batteries, along with an ASBM and SMART battery under A&N command. Same goes for Tamil Nadu and Kochi—one battery each of ASBM, SMART, and BrahMos, all backed by a fleet of six or more C-295s armed with BrahMos ALCMs. This setup would give us massive range and strike capability across the Indian Ocean.

Next, we need to get serious about underwater surveillance. Placing SOSUS systems around Malacca and Sri Lanka would give us early warning and tracking on enemy subs. Plus, we should buy six more P-8Is for air patrols, and throw in two Arihant-class SSGNs to boost our underwater muscle. We also need to build up ELINT infrastructure on the Cocos Islands and Seychelles, along with deploying some dedicated satellites. With all this, we’d be able to target any Chinese force in the IOR from up to 1500 km away.

Now, to counter the three key straits that China might use, they’ll likely push for a permanent presence in Africa and start paying more visits to BD and PK. But here’s the thing—if we play our cards right and buy the right systems, we can maintain local superiority in the IOR without breaking the bank.

We should also deploy Agni Prime missiles with 1000-1500 km range in A&N and Kochi, and maybe a few mobile launchers on Agalega. That setup would be a nightmare for any enemy trying to move in the IOR. Plus, SMART missiles can cover potential enemy ports in the neighborhood, while BrahMos keeps their fleets 800 km from our coasts. Honestly, even if we don’t have a huge fleet out there, we can still mess with any enemy forces just from land-based systems. The Arabian Sea? We could turn it into our personal swimming pool, no joke.

By placing sensors from Sri Lanka to A&N in a line, we can lock down that entire region, and with NGMVs patrolling, our eastern fleet would be free to go hunt Chinese ships across the IOR with carriers, frigates, and destroyers. And to put the final nail in Pakistan’s coffin, we should set up similar batteries in Mumbai and Gujarat. That would choke them out entirely—forcing them to sneak supplies through Iranian waters, which we could still block by stationing our warships near Aden.

In my opinion, we need to revive the 1971-style missile boat squadrons. Think about it: four NGMVs each for A&N, Vizag, Mumbai, Kochi, and Lakshadweep—20 boats total, maxing out at $220 million each. That, combined with missile batteries, would have Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia locked down. We could also add a squadron of TEDBFs or Tejas Mk1As for maritime strikes out of Gujarat, just to really send the message home.

With all that in place, Pakistan wouldn’t sleep at night—they’d be haunted by the thought of a repeat of Operation Python 2.0. And we’d be sitting pretty with total control over the Arabian Sea and beyond.
First off, we need the 5 layer web of anti aircraft and anti missile batteries in real big numbers, in thousands. that will secure the ANC from chinese ballistic missiles. then we can build all of the above.
 
First off, we need the 5 layer web of anti aircraft and anti missile batteries in real big numbers, in thousands. that will secure the ANC from chinese ballistic missiles. then we can build all of the above.
The message would be clear: “Stay in international waters, and we’ll leave you alone. But move any closer, and you’ll regret it.”
 
And no, India will also not join. India will not even send any ammunition to Taiwan, trust me.....
Sure? Then it will NOT be Sapparpaawar, BIG lost of face. 😭
 

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