PAF Future Acquisition Plans

I mentioned may years ago on PakDef and the previous version of this forum that project Azm was essentially aimed to replicate the development model of the JF-17, i.e. use either Chinese and/or Turkish consultancy to design a low cost single engine fifth gen fighter to meet PAF's doctrine.

Remember, the PAF has traditionally opted for single engine tactical fighters to deploy airframes at a relatively low cost vs. twin engine platforms, as well as to ease maintenance and maintain overall high serviceability. Given the investments the PAF is still making in its R&D centres, I don't think Azm is completely dead, but rather scaled down to design a relatively low cost alternative fifth gen platform. There's no way the PAF will be able to afford a fifth gen fleet of >400 fighters comprised entirely of J-35 and/or KAAN, and even the J-10Cs, Block 52 Vipers, and Block 3/4 JF-17s will have to be replaced some day (especially the JF-17s with 4,000 hour service life).

So beyond 2040 the PAF could comprise approx. a mix of 100-200 J-35/KAAN, and 150-200 Azm "light" fifth gen.
Exactly. IMO... The PAF will either gradually shift the 'lightweight tactical' leg of its fleet to the J-10CE, or push to develop 'another JF-17' (so to speak), but with relaxed stability, heavy composite use, a new engine, and the radar and avionics of the next-gen fighters.

A new original fighter is a great developmental route, for sure, but it'll be very costly. We're talking about adding net-new R&D overhead for, ultimately, a niche fighter (as few others require a new lightweight tactical fighter). Or, loop those resources (which are scarce) into buying an existing platform that basically meets most of the criteria of this new fighter (i.e., J-10CE).
 
Or! .... may even be an attempt to twist US arm to acquire F-16 Block-70/72
Bro, the only way you're (PAF) is getting its hands on Block 70/72s' is by...
a. Accepting !srael.
b. Making Peace with !ndia.
c. Cutting of relations with China (indirectly).
d. Attacking Iran - on demand.
e. Giving space for Drones within Pak*

*something that might already be in the pipeline.

Oh & whatever Vipers you do get, will come with infamous..., or notorious: End-User Agreement

Trust me, you can attempt to break their arm in all the twisting, but the US won't even let you buy the (used) F-16's parked in Nevada.

SAAB Gripen: Same old story with US Engines.
Dassualt Rafales: Camp India
EuroFighter Typhoon: Some drama or the other.

At the moment, PAF's best & safer bet is China, be it J-10C, PL-15 & whatever swings our way in the not-so-distant-future.
 
Exactly. IMO... The PAF will either gradually shift the 'lightweight tactical' leg of its fleet to the J-10CE, or push to develop 'another JF-17' (so to speak), but with relaxed stability, heavy composite use, a new engine, and the radar and avionics of the next-gen fighters.

A new original fighter is a great developmental route, for sure, but it'll be very costly. We're talking about adding net-new R&D overhead for, ultimately, a niche fighter (as few others require a new lightweight tactical fighter). Or, loop those resources (which are scarce) into buying an existing platform that basically meets most of the criteria of this new fighter (i.e., J-10CE).

I would go beyond that. Even 4++ gen fighters like J-10CE will quickly face obsolescence in the face of rapidly expanding fifth gen, EW, and asymmetric threats, and they'll have relatively shorter operational relevance. If you look closely between the lines, Azm could end up being a single engine fifth gen tactical platform and/or optional unmanned loyal wingman. The hint is there given the messages about collaboration with Turkey and its Kizilelma. By then, the exposure to either Chinese and/or collaboration with Turkey will have laid the groundwork to rapidly prototype and scale up the relevant fifth gen tech.
 
Has anyone looked at the timing of this announcement? Given PAF's resources and it's current situation with other platforms, can the "near future" be any less than 6-7 years(i.e. into the 2030's)? Or maybe even more than that.

Was it wise or necessary to announce this now? Especially given the fact that India is nowhere near inducting anything 5th Gen and this can only spur them on.

Granted everyone obviously wants it and options are very limited but still was it necessary to announce NOW that "groundwork/foundation" has been laid, for something that MIGHT happen in future?

However Sidhu sahab is retiring in 2 months only. Is this the reason he needed to mention it NOW so that he can claim credit for 5th Gen induction work regardless of whenever it actually happens?
"hey nobody forget i laid the foundation for this". ??

I am only asking a question here and not stating a fact, but I do think personally that this was very premature on part of the helicopter/red carpet fame sidhu sahab.

What does the forum think?

@Oscar @Quwa @JamD
 
Would the PAF develop another lightweight tactical fighter like the JF-17 (e.g., single engine, but relaxed stability, built around AESA radar, composites, etc)?
This is possible if PAF can get Bayraktar into this venture.
However, Bayraktar is heavily focused towards KE so PAF has no option for external technological help.
 
Good news for India.

Before PAF ordered J-31, US would have never given India F-35 citing it will impact regional balance of power.

Now with Pakistan getting J-31, US will cite the same excuse i.e to "maintain regional balance of power" to offer India F-35.

Guess US knew well in advance PAF was going for J-31, which is why it sent F-35A to Aero India 2023.
 
Has anyone looked at the timing of this announcement? Given PAF's resources and it's current situation with other platforms, can the "near future" be any less than 6-7 years(i.e. into the 2030's)? Or maybe even more than that.

Was it wise or necessary to announce this now? Especially given the fact that India is nowhere near inducting anything 5th Gen and this can only spur them on.

Granted everyone obviously wants it and options are very limited but still was it necessary to announce NOW that "groundwork/foundation" has been laid, for something that MIGHT happen in future?

However Sidhu sahab is retiring in 2 months only. Is this the reason he needed to mention it NOW so that he can claim credit for 5th Gen induction work regardless of whenever it actually happens?
"hey nobody forget i laid the foundation for this". ??

I am only asking a question here and not stating a fact, but I do think personally that this was very premature on part of the helicopter/red carpet fame sidhu sahab.

What does the forum think?

@Oscar @Quwa @JamD
While they weren't specific, each of the preceding CAS had remarked on acquiring a NGFA in pretty directed terms, e.g., ACM Sohail Aman saying, "we have Chinese options, we're working with Turkey." or ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan, "We'd like to work in a consortium, but the fighter must be ITAR-free."

I mean, the PAF leadership made it pretty clear where they were heading, so, one way or another, this was going to happen. The current CAS was definitely very specific (calling out the J-31), but he didn't break from anything the previous CAS' had revealed.

Sure, with the preceding CAS, we had to 'guess' which Turkish and Chinese fighters they spoke about (not much guesswork necessary); but the current CAS just made the obvious clear and explicit.

Good news for India.

Before PAF ordered J-31, US would have never given India F-35 citing it will impact regional balance of power.

Now with Pakistan getting J-31, US will cite the same excuse i.e to "maintain regional balance of power" to offer India F-35.

Guess US knew well in advance PAF was going for J-31, which is why it sent F-35A to Aero India 2023.
My impression was that it was India that was reluctant about the F-35 because of America's end-user requirements (e.g., ALIS) and that it'd take focus away from AMCA?
 
While they weren't specific, each of the preceding CAS had remarked on acquiring a NGFA in pretty directed terms, e.g., ACM Sohail Aman saying, "we have Chinese options, we're working with Turkey." or ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan, "We'd like to work in a consortium, but the fighter must be ITAR-free."

I mean, the PAF leadership made it pretty clear where they were heading, so, one way or another, this was going to happen. The current CAS was definitely very specific (calling out the J-31), but he didn't break from anything the previous CAS' had revealed.

Sure, with the preceding CAS, we had to 'guess' which Turkish and Chinese fighters they spoke about (not much guesswork necessary); but the current CAS just made the obvious clear and explicit.


My impression was that it was India that was reluctant about the F-35 because of America's end-user requirements (e.g., ALIS) and that it'd take focus away from AMCA?
Worrying about end-user agreement/strings is a luxury and can be done only when there are alternatives.

As for AMCA, that is still at early stages and won't enter service before 2035 (that too if CCS approval happens in 6-8 months).
 
Title is wrong there are no more J31 but SAC testing J 35 (improved version of J31)
Nope its correct... in that the original one was carrier based j35 which saw an airforce variant being developed in the form of j31 after plaaf showed interest in shenyang program to keep up numbers while at the same time managing costs since j20s only would b much more expensive.
 
While they weren't specific, each of the preceding CAS had remarked on acquiring a NGFA in pretty directed terms, e.g., ACM Sohail Aman saying, "we have Chinese options, we're working with Turkey." or ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan, "We'd like to work in a consortium, but the fighter must be ITAR-free."

I mean, the PAF leadership made it pretty clear where they were heading, so, one way or another, this was going to happen. The current CAS was definitely very specific (calling out the J-31), but he didn't break from anything the previous CAS' had revealed.

Sure, with the preceding CAS, we had to 'guess' which Turkish and Chinese fighters they spoke about (not much guesswork necessary); but the current CAS just made the obvious clear and explicit.
See the bolded parts, this is exactly where the problems is. It makes a world of a difference. Discussing something or wanting something is not the same as actually getting it. That makes a world of a difference. I wrote this already in my previous post,

"Granted everyone obviously wants it and options are very limited"
This is only the level of what we knew from anything mentioned by any previous CAS.
THe questions is and as i wrote,
"but still was it necessary to announce NOW"

That's what I wanted to discuss. I mean just look at the impact. Just look at the post by Tejas Spokesman, and I absolutely agree with it. India may have wanted the F-35 but negotiations for such procurements are complex and time taking, and a negating argument that there is no 5th Gen in the region could have made them even slower. But with this announcement it's the opposite case now. India can start making that argument TODAY (that PAF is already getting 5th gen) rather than after few years, when & if PAF actually placed an order.

They just gained a few years in the process, this is the impact IMO and why I think this was unwise and unnecessary.
 
The main thing that worries me is the extremely limited payload that the J-31 has compared to other 5th gen platforms that are either in development or complete.

If India gets the F-35, which I believe it will by 2035, then the J-31 is certainly going to be outclassed in terms of fire power.

I can't speak too much in terms of the tech as we simply don't know anything about the J-31's tech (both hardware and software), and how advanced it will be compared to the F-35.
 

China’s J-31 stealth fighter may fly in Pakistan, replacing the F-16

Pakistan continues to modernize its air force. Following the acquisition of 20 J-10C Vigorous Dragon and 149 JF-17 Thunder, Islamabad intends to start negotiations with Beijing for the acquisition of J-31 stealth fighters.

The acquisition plans were confirmed by Pakistan Air Chief Marshal Zahir Ahmed Babar. He said, “The groundwork has already been laid for the acquisition of the J-31 Stealth Fighter aircraft, which is all set to become part of the PAF fleet shortly.” Indian and Pakistani media have also written about Pakistan’s plans for the country to acquire a stealth fighter.

According to Indian analysts, Islamabad wants Chinese stealth fighters to replace the Pakistan Air Force’s [PAF] aging fleet of F-16s. Currently, 75 F-16 units in various modifications [F-16A, F-16B, F-16C, and F-16D] are in service with the PAF.

US F-16 pilot: Su-35 looks good at air shows, but it's junk
Photo credit: Wikipedia
Together with them, another 87 Dassault Mirage 3 and 92 Dassault Mirage 5 fighters are the core of the “older” Pakistani combat aviation. Some of these aircraft have been refurbished and are still flying. However, all of them are scheduled to be replaced by newer combat aircraft.

Such a replacement has already begun as the JF-17s are already flying as Pakistan’s plans were. As India acquired the French Dassault Rafale, Pakistan responded by acquiring 20 Chinese J-10s. Thus, to replace the aging fleet of American F-16 fighter jets, Pakistan is apparently planning for this replacement to be again a Chinese aircraft – the J-31.

Game-changer for the PAF​

China's J-31 stealth fighter may fly in Pakistan, replacing the F-16
Photo by Hunter Chen
The J-31, with its impressive stealth features and extensive striking range, has the potential to dramatically alter the role of the Pakistan Air Force [PAF] in regional power dynamics. It would significantly increase the PAF’s tactical flexibility and enable it to infiltrate deeper into enemy territory.

In sync with the planned retirement of the aging American F-16s from the Cold War epoch, the proposed deployment of the J-31 clearly signals Pakistan’s dedication to keeping its air defenses abreast with the latest technology. The shift from older aircraft to this modern, stealth-platform displays the country’s progressiveness in terms of defense technology.

However, no concrete details on the procurement timeline for the J-31s are divulged by Munir. This reticence could be attributed to ongoing dialogues with China, monetary considerations, or even the prospect of global scrutiny associated with such prominent arms purchases.

China's J-31 stealth fighter may fly in Pakistan, replacing the F-16
Photo credit: Chinese Internet
Even in the absence of a definite schedule for the acquisition, the mere mention of the J-31 sheds light on Pakistan’s strategic intentions. The country is visibly concentrated on affording its airspace with cutting-edge security technology, reinforcing its intent to remain a dominant actor in the region.

The speculation of the J-31 making its way to Pakistan has managed to attract substantial attention within the defense circles. It stirs conjecture about its repercussions on regional stability and the India-Pakistan arms competition. Still, the actual prospect of this acquisition remains shrouded in uncertainty.

The J-31​

China is not quick to speculate on such claims, although it has apparently held talks with Pakistan about such an acquisition. However, uncertainty surrounding the J-31 continues to linger in the public eye, especially as China provides little information about the aircraft’s characteristics.

There are some well-known, albeit questionable, facts about the Shenyang J-31. For instance, the maximum take-off weight of the J-31 has reportedly increased from 25,000 kg to 28,000 kg. The Shenyang Aircraft Corporation has verified that the J-31 engine has been upgraded to the WS-19, offering a more significant thrust of 12 tons, compared to the previous WS-13 engine with a 9-ton thrust.

Despite being smaller, the J-31 is often compared to the Chengdu J-20. The adoption of twin-wheel nose landing gear sparked conjecture that the J-31 was designed to be a carrier-based fighter. Bill Sweetman points to various improvements mirrored from the F-35C design files, suggesting that the Chinese may have gleaned inspiration from the same. However, analyst David Bignell makes a case for the J-31 being more akin to the F-22, noting the likenesses in platform, form, aerodynamics, and airframe configuration.

The J-31 boasts two internal weapons bays, each capable of securing two medium-range missiles. Each wing carries two heavy hardpoints and one light hardpoint, with an additional light hardpoint fitted over the F-35’s capacity. However, it falls short of the F-35’s ability to equip a centerline gunnery or jamming pod.

Despite these specifications, AVIC officials noted significant usage of additive manufacturing on the aircraft, which resulted in a 50% decrease in components compared to similar aircraft. One noteworthy consequence of this manufacturing process is that the resultant airframe can’t be disassembled, meaning the static test frame needs to be transported in its entirety.

Pakistan is also looking at the KAAN​


In August of 2023, Yasar Güler, the Defense Minister of Turkey, made an exciting announcement. According to Güler, Pakistan is potentially on the verge of participating in the KAAN national combat aircraft program, as an agreement is close to being inked.

Intriguingly, Güler highlighted the silver lining that emerged from the refusal of the US to supply Turkey with the F-35. He stressed that this apparent roadblock stimulated Turkey to develop its own aircraft, resulting in the birth of the KAAN project. This particular aircraft not only testifies to Turkey’s remarkable skills but is also drawing the attention of nations friendly to Turkey who express avid interest in the project. Güler went on to add, “We have a signed agreement with Azerbaijan, and several other nations, including Pakistan, are expressing significant interest.”
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top