PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Cryptonian]

J-31/35 makes sense for Pakistan as sharing same powerplant with JF-17.

Wrong.
J31 is stealth jet hence Instead of rd-93/33 , it is planned to get higher thrust WS-19 or maybe ws-13.
Pakistan has chosen to stick with rd-93 even in Blk3.

 

[Trailer23]

What are the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737 for? Plush chauffer flown transports for the military fat bellies?

I know the a319 was used as a Transport a/c during Exercise Spears of Victory.

God knows what the B737 is for. And its a B737 Classic, meaning its one of the 3 variants (-300/ -400/ -500). WTF..., they couldn't get their hands on a NG (Next Generation) !!!

​

How many people noticed the insignia/logo on its cfm56 engine ?

 

[ety]

KAAN will replace our F-16s whereas a Chinese 5th gen fighter will replace our JF-17s and J-10s.

J-17 and J-10C will be around for long time.

 

[Zephyrus]

What are the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737 for? Plush chauffer flown transports for the military fat bellies?

B737 is registered AP-BNW, for air eagle, a subsidiary of shaheen foundation, it is a freighter (cargo) variant, air eagle flies passenger and cargo charters and has a fleet of SAAB2K, C130, C172, B737-3F it used to have Y12 as well.
Why it was shown, that is what i am not aware of.

 

[Zephyrus]

I know the a319 was used as a Transport a/c during Exercise Spears of Victory.

God knows what the B737 is for. And its a B737 Classic, meaning its one of the 3 variants (-300/ -400/ -500). WTF..., they couldn't get their hands on a NG (Next Generation) !!!

View attachment 7214
​

How many people noticed the insignia/logo on its cfm56 engine ?

that's the logo for air eagle. https://aireagle.pk/

 

[Trailer23]

that's the logo for air eagle. https://aireagle.pk/

Was originally the Logo of Shaheen Air International back in the 90's, before it was sold to the (late) Khalid Sebhai.

​

 

[Zephyrus]

Was originally the Logo of Shaheen Air International back in the 90's, before it was sold to the (late) Khalid Sebhai.

View attachment 7217

View attachment 7216
​

Thank you for a lesson in history.

 

[Nuffle]

India is getting f35 in next 3 years max. PAF needs to find a solution

I believe this is now more a matter of when and not if it will actually occur.

The Indians could be in trouble.

IAF 2023:
5 Sqd Jaguar - 130 aircraft
3 Sqd MiG-21 - 54 aircraft
3 Sqd Mirage 2000 - 45 aircraft
3 Sqd MiG-29 - 65 aircraft
2 Sqd Rafale - 36 aircraft
12 Sqd Su-30MKI - 248 aircraft
2 Sqd Tejas - 32 aircraft

The IAF had 31 active squadrons, but of the remaining 4 squadrons that will be eliminated from the MiG-21 by 2025, one of them has already been deactivated, with the composition of the IAF standing at 30 squadrons with 556 active aircraft, which means that the IAF has 12 squadrons less than it should, around 216 aircraft in deficit to face +400 PAF fighters divided into 20 squadrons and 200 PLAAF fighters from China's Western Command(WTC), mentioning that the PAF is updating its air force for the J-10CE and the JF-17 Block III(and now the 5th generation J-31), in addition, it still plans to increase another 4 or 5 squadrons, which would put another 80-100 fighters for the IAF to face , the current posture of the IAF is very weak in maintaining a structure of 42 squadrons with somewhere around 756 aircraft to go head to head with the combined fleet of around 655-700 aircraft of the PAF and PLAAF.

Either India needs to urgently resolve the AMCA, which will only be available in 2035, or move to the F-35 or return to the Su-57. There's no way. By 2035, what will be the PAF/PLAAF's stance in theater?

Just to mention, the PLAAF's 200 fighters can still contain 5th generation J-20s, combined with a fleet of PAF J-31s, the IAF will be in trouble in the early 2030s.

It is quite possible that the J-20 fleet in the PLAAF will reach 1000 fighters by +2030, I believe that around 200 units could be under the command of the WTC, combined with a small fleet of 30-100 J-31s in the PAF.

IAF 2032-2035
5 Esqd Jaguar - 130 aircraft (eliminated by 2032)
3 Esqd MiG-21 - 54 aircraft (eliminated by 2025)
3 Esqd Mirage 2000 - 45 aircraft (eliminated by 2035)
3 Esqd MiG-29 - 65 aircraft (eliminated by 2035)

Therefore, based on orders already agreed and/or rumors of orders + some baseless speculation, the IAF in 2035 would be:

2 Sqd Rafale - 36 aircraft
12-14 Sqd Su-30MKI - 248-270 aircraft
2 Sqd Tejas Mk 1 - 32 aircraft
5 Sqd Tejas Mk 1A - 83 aircraft
= 21-23 Sqd - 399-421 aircraft

Increase through MMRCA 2.0, acquiring 114 aircraft, representing around 7 squadrons. (contract almost closing)

Also mentioned is a probable extra order for another 3 Sqd Tejas Mk 1A, representing another 54 aircraft. (recent rumors)

Order of Tejas Mk 2, probably somewhere around 5 squadrons, totaling 90 aircraft. (speculation)

= 15 Sqd - 258 aircraft

In other words, by 2035, the IAF would have between 36 and 38 squadrons totaling between 657 and 679 aircraft.

NONE OF THE 5th GENERATION AIRCRAFT.

If you were an IAF officer, you would already be working hard trying to convert this inferiority that will only intensify until 2035, at the earliest.

 

[Trailer23]

I believe this is now more a matter of when and not if it will actually occur.

The Indians could be in trouble.

IAF 2023:
5 Sqd Jaguar - 130 aircraft
3 Sqd MiG-21 - 54 aircraft
3 Sqd Mirage 2000 - 45 aircraft
3 Sqd MiG-29 - 65 aircraft
2 Sqd Rafale - 36 aircraft
12 Sqd Su-30MKI - 248 aircraft
2 Sqd Tejas - 32 aircraft

The IAF had 31 active squadrons, but of the remaining 4 squadrons that will be eliminated from the MiG-21 by 2025, one of them has already been deactivated, with the composition of the IAF standing at 30 squadrons with 556 active aircraft, which means that the IAF has 12 squadrons less than it should, around 216 aircraft in deficit to face +400 PAF fighters divided into 20 squadrons and 200 PLAAF fighters from China's Western Command(WTC), mentioning that the PAF is updating its air force for the J-10CE and the JF-17 Block III(and now the 5th generation J-31), in addition, it still plans to increase another 4 or 5 squadrons, which would put another 80-100 fighters for the IAF to face , the current posture of the IAF is very weak in maintaining a structure of 42 squadrons with somewhere around 756 aircraft to go head to head with the combined fleet of around 655-700 aircraft of the PAF and PLAAF.

Either India needs to urgently resolve the AMCA, which will only be available in 2035, or move to the F-35 or return to the Su-57. There's no way. By 2035, what will be the PAF/PLAAF's stance in theater?

Just to mention, the PLAAF's 200 fighters can still contain 5th generation J-20s, combined with a fleet of PAF J-31s, the IAF will be in trouble in the early 2030s.

It is quite possible that the J-20 fleet in the PLAAF will reach 1000 fighters by +2030, I believe that around 200 units could be under the command of the WTC, combined with a small fleet of 30-100 J-31s in the PAF.

IAF 2032-2035
5 Esqd Jaguar - 130 aircraft (eliminated by 2032)
3 Esqd MiG-21 - 54 aircraft (eliminated by 2025)
3 Esqd Mirage 2000 - 45 aircraft (eliminated by 2035)
3 Esqd MiG-29 - 65 aircraft (eliminated by 2035)

Therefore, based on orders already agreed and/or rumors of orders + some baseless speculation, the IAF in 2035 would be:

2 Sqd Rafale - 36 aircraft
12-14 Sqd Su-30MKI - 248-270 aircraft
2 Sqd Tejas Mk 1 - 32 aircraft
5 Sqd Tejas Mk 1A - 83 aircraft
= 21-23 Sqd - 399-421 aircraft

Increase through MMRCA 2.0, acquiring 114 aircraft, representing around 7 squadrons. (contract almost closing)

Also mentioned is a probable extra order for another 3 Sqd Tejas Mk 1A, representing another 54 aircraft. (recent rumors)

Order of Tejas Mk 2, probably somewhere around 5 squadrons, totaling 90 aircraft. (speculation)

= 15 Sqd - 258 aircraft

In other words, by 2035, the IAF would have between 36 and 38 squadrons totaling between 657 and 679 aircraft.

NONE OF THE 5th GENERATION AIRCRAFT.

If you were an IAF officer, you would already be working hard trying to convert this inferiority that will only intensify until 2035, at the earliest.

Recently there was an interview of a former IAF Officer who has authored a book.

In the Interview he mentioned that IAF currently stands at 33 Fighter Squadrons, where the number should be 42 Squadrons.

And those numbers seem to be going down pretty fast. If memory serves, a couple of months backs there was this big deal about the last MiG-21 Squadron retiring, however, according to this Interview - 03 Mig-21 Squadrons are still actively flying.

 

[Quwa]

@Quwa so this is the end of KAAN entry into Pakistan?
J-31 from China & Kizil-Elma from Bayraktar and Pakistan will be good as far as Stealth is concerned.

tbh, I think the J-31/35 and KAAN could solve different problems.

The KAAN is larger than the J-31/35 (e.g., uses two GE F110s) and, based on how TAI's configuring it, shaping up with more of a strike-centric role (e.g., EOTS). This makes sense because since the TuAF lost access to the F-35, they've needed their NGFA to be more suitable for strike. It might be why the TuAF went for a larger design with the KAAN (30-35 tons) needing two GE F110s rather than a single-engine F110 design or twin F404 platform (21-27 tons).

So, to the PAF, the KAAN could make for a really good strike platform (directly replacing the Mirage III/5s in the role). OTOH, I view the J-31/35 as more of a general workhorse fighter.

SAC is designing the J-35 with the PLAN's needs in mind, so I imagine it'd need a good balance of air-to-air and air-to-surface capabilities. It should also be scalable, so SAC will work to control production and long-term maintenance/operating costs.

Finally, China has a strategic interest in the J-35 (for the PLAN's needs), so there's a guaranteed, hefty order book to initiate scale (and lower unit costs). I also think other countries have quietly committed to the J-31/35, like Egypt, Algeria, KSA, or others. Besides waiting for the KAAN, there is no other NGFA option for anyone outside of the West. So, the launching order book of the J-31/35 will likely be the best of any Chinese aircraft in history given that the jet is the only solution for an urgent and wide-scale problem (lack of NGFAs). In other words, the unit price promised by AVIC is likely pretty good and the PAF didn't want to miss out.

So, the question to ask is, why would the PAF need a medium-weight, multirole NGFA? Well, its older F-16A/Bs (i.e., the current medium-weight, multirole fighter) are aging and will reach their OEM-defined lifespans by 2040. The J-31/35 would likely replace the Peace Gate I/II Falcons.

That said, from 2040, I can see the PAF giving the KAAN a serious look, but as a specialized asset for the strike role. The KAAN is bigger and, potentially, a future block (ideally the one with the TR Motor engines) will have a bigger internal payload, better sensors for surface tracking/targeting (e.g., an improved EOTS, a high-powered AESA radar with really good SAR/GMTI, etc).

The PAF had wanted a genuine strike platform for decades - from A-7 Corsair II in the 1970s to the M2K-5 in the 1990s. It's been elusive for one reason or another, but the KAAN is shaping up to being that type of platform.

For me, the bigger question is what happens to the PAF's tactical fighter element as it evolves into a next-gen air force. Be it KAAN or J-31/35, the stealth NGFAs are strategically valuable as conventional deterrents (excellent air-to-surface and air-to-air), but they're high cost, not just from a procurement standpoint, but operational too. You're not flying any of those as frequently and aggressively as the JF-17 or even the F-16.

The PAF can't afford to treat air power as a luxury, so it needs a "beater" like the JF-17 to drive the bulk of tactical operations. Now, I wonder if this "next gen air force" has a place for a fighter like the JF-17 in the future. Would the PAF develop another lightweight tactical fighter like the JF-17 (e.g., single engine, but relaxed stability, built around AESA radar, composites, etc)? Or, is this why the PAF ordered the J-10CE? @Oscar @arslank01 @Qureshi @Deino

 

[Dil Pakistan]

Media is awash with this news, but I doubt it very much for several reasons:

1. J10C, LIFT and now a 5th Gen. --- we should equivalent to the economy size of Saudis.

2. This is not the way PAF makes acquisitions. We knew about J10C procurement when the 1st piece had already landed in Pakistan.

This more seems like a pressure tactic on IAF, or may be to ruffle their feathers on AMCA program and hassle them to make a bad decision to buy SU-57 or F-35.

Or! .... may even be an attempt to twist US arm to acquire F-16 Block-70/72

This is my reading.

 

[maverick]

Correction....

• PAF was never interested in BLK 70/72 nor it were offered.
• F7PGs are going to be replaced by L15Bs.
• Mirage will remain in service till 2030 (maybe) & will be replace by JF17-IIIs gradually.

Based on my sources, J31/J35 inducation will happen before the end of 2027.
J10C/JF17B3 will keep on replacing aging aircrafts.

PAF is accelerating 5th Gen aircrafts because of perpetual wars around it for the next decade or two.

 

[Quwa]

Media is awash with this news, but I doubt it very much for several reasons:

1. J10C, LIFT and now a 5th Gen. --- we should equivalent to the economy size of Saudis.

2. This is not the way PAF makes acquisitions. We knew about J10C procurement when the 1st piece had already landed in Pakistan.

This more seems like a pressure tactic on IAF, or may be to ruffle their feathers on AMCA program and hassle them to make a bad decision to buy SU-57 or F-35.

Or! .... may even be an attempt to twist US arm to acquire F-16 Block-70/72

This is my reading.

For what it's worth, the PAF confirmed it via its official YouTube channel:

 

[Trailer23]

tbh, I think the J-31/35 and KAAN could solve different problems.

The KAAN is larger than the J-31/35 (e.g., uses two GE F110s) and, based on how TAI's configuring it, shaping up with more of a strike-centric role (e.g., EOTS). This makes sense because since the TuAF lost access to the F-35, they've needed their NGFA to be more suitable for strike. It might be why the TuAF went for a larger design with the KAAN (30-35 tons) needing two GE F110s rather than a single-engine F110 design or twin F404 platform (21-27 tons).

So, to the PAF, the KAAN could make for a really good strike platform (directly replacing the Mirage III/5s in the role). OTOH, I view the J-31/35 as more of a general workhorse fighter.

SAC is designing the J-35 with the PLAN's needs in mind, so I imagine it'd need a good balance of air-to-air and air-to-surface capabilities. It should also be scalable, so SAC will work to control production and long-term maintenance/operating costs.

Finally, China has a strategic interest in the J-35 (for the PLAN's needs), so there's a guaranteed, hefty order book to initiate scale (and lower unit costs). I also think other countries have quietly committed to the J-31/35, like Egypt, Algeria, KSA, or others. Besides waiting for the KAAN, there is no other NGFA option for anyone outside of the West. So, the launching order book of the J-31/35 will likely be the best of any Chinese aircraft in history given that the jet is the only solution for an urgent and wide-scale problem (lack of NGFAs). In other words, the unit price promised by AVIC is likely pretty good and the PAF didn't want to miss out.

So, the question to ask is, why would the PAF need a medium-weight, multirole NGFA? Well, its older F-16A/Bs (i.e., the current medium-weight, multirole fighter) are aging and will reach their OEM-defined lifespans by 2040. The J-31/35 would likely replace the Peace Gate I/II Falcons.

That said, from 2040, I can see the PAF giving the KAAN a serious look, but as a specialized asset for the strike role. The KAAN is bigger and, potentially, a future block (ideally the one with the TR Motor engines) will have a bigger internal payload, better sensors for surface tracking/targeting (e.g., an improved EOTS, a high-powered AESA radar with really good SAR/GMTI, etc).

The PAF had wanted a genuine strike platform for decades - from A-7 Corsair II in the 1970s to the M2K-5 in the 1990s. It's been elusive for one reason or another, but the KAAN is shaping up to being that type of platform.

For me, the bigger question is what happens to the PAF's tactical fighter element as it evolves into a next-gen air force. Be it KAAN or J-31/35, the stealth NGFAs are strategically valuable as conventional deterrents (excellent air-to-surface and air-to-air), but they're high cost, not just from a procurement standpoint, but operational too.

The PAF can't afford to treat air power as a luxury, so it needs a "beater" like the JF-17 to drive the bulk of tactical operations. Now, I wonder if this "next gen air force" has a place for a fighter like the JF-17 in the future. Would the PAF develop another lightweight tactical fighter like the JF-17 (e.g., single engine, but relaxed stability, built around AESA radar, composites, etc)? Or, is this why the PAF ordered the J-10CE? @Oscar @arslank01 @Qureshi

 

[Corax]

tbh, I think the J-31/35 and KAAN could solve different problems.

The KAAN is larger than the J-31/35 (e.g., uses two GE F110s) and, based on how TAI's configuring it, shaping up with more of a strike-centric role (e.g., EOTS). This makes sense because since the TuAF lost access to the F-35, they've needed their NGFA to be more suitable for strike. It might be why the TuAF went for a larger design with the KAAN (30-35 tons) needing two GE F110s rather than a single-engine F110 design or twin F404 platform (21-27 tons).

So, to the PAF, the KAAN could make for a really good strike platform (directly replacing the Mirage III/5s in the role). OTOH, I view the J-31/35 as more of a general workhorse fighter.

SAC is designing the J-35 with the PLAN's needs in mind, so I imagine it'd need a good balance of air-to-air and air-to-surface capabilities. It should also be scalable, so SAC will work to control production and long-term maintenance/operating costs.

Finally, China has a strategic interest in the J-35 (for the PLAN's needs), so there's a guaranteed, hefty order book to initiate scale (and lower unit costs). I also think other countries have quietly committed to the J-31/35, like Egypt, Algeria, KSA, or others. Besides waiting for the KAAN, there is no other NGFA option for anyone outside of the West. So, the launching order book of the J-31/35 will likely be the best of any Chinese aircraft in history given that the jet is the only solution for an urgent and wide-scale problem (lack of NGFAs). In other words, the unit price promised by AVIC is likely pretty good and the PAF didn't want to miss out.

So, the question to ask is, why would the PAF need a medium-weight, multirole NGFA? Well, its older F-16A/Bs (i.e., the current medium-weight, multirole fighter) are aging and will reach their OEM-defined lifespans by 2040. The J-31/35 would likely replace the Peace Gate I/II Falcons.

That said, from 2040, I can see the PAF giving the KAAN a serious look, but as a specialized asset for the strike role. The KAAN is bigger and, potentially, a future block (ideally the one with the TR Motor engines) will have a bigger internal payload, better sensors for surface tracking/targeting (e.g., an improved EOTS, a high-powered AESA radar with really good SAR/GMTI, etc).

The PAF had wanted a genuine strike platform for decades - from A-7 Corsair II in the 1970s to the M2K-5 in the 1990s. It's been elusive for one reason or another, but the KAAN is shaping up to being that type of platform.

For me, the bigger question is what happens to the PAF's tactical fighter element as it evolves into a next-gen air force. Be it KAAN or J-31/35, the stealth NGFAs are strategically valuable as conventional deterrents (excellent air-to-surface and air-to-air), but they're high cost, not just from a procurement standpoint, but operational too.

The PAF can't afford to treat air power as a luxury, so it needs a "beater" like the JF-17 to drive the bulk of tactical operations. Now, I wonder if this "next gen air force" has a place for a fighter like the JF-17 in the future. Would the PAF develop another lightweight tactical fighter like the JF-17 (e.g., single engine, but relaxed stability, built around AESA radar, composites, etc)? Or, is this why the PAF ordered the J-10CE? @Oscar @arslank01 @Qureshi

I mentioned may years ago on PakDef and the previous version of this forum that project Azm was essentially aimed to replicate the development model of the JF-17, i.e. use either Chinese and/or Turkish consultancy to design a low cost single engine fifth gen fighter to meet PAF's doctrine.

Remember, the PAF has traditionally opted for single engine tactical fighters to deploy airframes at a relatively low cost vs. twin engine platforms, as well as to ease maintenance and maintain overall high serviceability. Given the investments the PAF is still making in its R&D centres, I don't think Azm is completely dead, but rather scaled down to design a relatively low cost alternative fifth gen platform. There's no way the PAF will be able to afford a fifth gen fleet of >400 fighters comprised entirely of J-35 and/or KAAN, and even the J-10Cs, Block 52 Vipers, and Block 3/4 JF-17s will have to be replaced some day (especially the JF-17s with 4,000 hour service life).

So beyond 2040 the PAF could comprise approx. a mix of 100-200 J-35/KAAN, and 150-200 Azm "light" fifth gen.