PAF Future Acquisition Plans

[Falcon26]

India is nowhere close to resolving these bottle necks. These bottlenecks will take at least 15 more years to resolve. That too if everything falls in best case scenario. Yes, we have Economic issues which we need to resolve also social problems. But no offense the social problems India is facing, and they are making them worse and getting even more worse.

Can you kindly remind us how you reached the conclusion that India is “at least 15 years more to resolve” IAF’s bottlenecks?

 

[Manticore]

Dear Zarvan, J31（be it the name of new 5th gen fighter for PAF）might be "Eagle" 3.0 land version. PAF always want the best.
The configuration will be different under the name of J31, depends on the demand by customers and relationship between nations.

Adjustments: Post Count, Reactions and Join Date

sir amir hussain.. I hope he is well. when I posted dioramas in military section he was so happy he called me up .. Yes, I remember seeing him come on board, unless I am seriously wrong. hope all are well how have you been doing? hows your health? :) Age is a disease that nothing can cure...

defencepk.com

Please remember to get your post count adjusted

 

[That_Guy]

​

Pakistan’s fighter dilemma: Pursuing Chinese FC-31 amid Turkish Kaan uncertainty​

9th January 2024 - 15:59 GMT | by Norbert Neumann in London
RSS

Very little has been shared regarding the development status of the Shenyang FC-31. (Photo: X/Twitter)

With the Pakistan Air Force acknowledging its intention to procure Chinese J-31/FC-31 fifth-generation aircraft, questions have arisen about Pakistan’s stance on joining Turkey’s TF-X Kaan fighter programme, heightening speculation on the nation’s strategic alliances.

Pakistan’s fighter dilemma: Pursuing Chinese FC-31 amid Turkish Kaan uncertainty | Shephard

With the Pakistan Air Force acknowledging its intention to procure Chinese J-31/FC-31 fifth-generation aircraft, questions have arisen about Pakistan’s stance on joining Turkey’s TF-X Kaan fighter programme, heightening speculation on the nation’s strategic alliances.

www.shephardmedia.com

I still think there's a good chance that PAF will buy both. FC-31 for early procurement to establish air-superiority, and the KAAN to maintain that edge by getting European/Turkish tech.

 

[_NOBODY_]

I still think there's a good chance that PAF will buy both. FC-31 for early procurement to establish air-superiority, and the KAAN to maintain that edge by getting European/Turkish tech.

PAF will definitely buy KAAN as J-31 cannot be effectively utilized for strike missions due to its size.

 

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

I'm coming home, I'm coming home, tell the world that I'm coming home

 

[Qureshi]

I still think there's a good chance that PAF will buy both. FC-31 for early procurement to establish air-superiority, and the KAAN to maintain that edge by getting European/Turkish tech.

Unless it has an indigenous power plant, which is unlikely to happen for the next seven to eight years.

 

[MastanKhan]

Pakistan hasn’t checkmated its enemies. It is simply lucky to be facing the IAF, which’s a lethargic and inefficient organization. But anyone that follows Indian military developments would know that India is working tirelessly to resolve these issues that plague the Indian Air Force. In time, India will resolve these bottlenecks.

But Pakistan has deep systemic problems both at the social and economic level. With continued stunted economic growth, Pakistan military will not have what it takes to fund big item projects. The ongoing shift to air defense systems is a hint of what’s to come. Pakistan knows it can’t continue to fund procurement of warplanes. It’s why Project Azm was abruptly canceled.

And Pakistan won’t have strong economy without political stability. And political stability can’t happen because the army generals are control freaks that can’t imagine functioning like a normal army. And herein lies Pakistan’s core problem.

Hi,

Our declared enemy is india and no one else---.

Project AZM was a smoke screen created to confuse the enemy---. The primary target was always J-31---.

Air defence has spiralled out of control since the syrian conflict and then thru the ukraine war.

 

[EyelessInGaza]

The crux of the problem as I see it, is our obsession with using non state actors to keep small fires lit in our neighborhood. Until the start 2000's we were dabbling inside western China with this policy!! This policy or methodology has not panned out positively for Pakistan on any of the borders. Kashmir....now firmly part of Indian Union. Afghanistan a mess that has backfired royally for us. Proxies inside Iran have not delivered if anything was to be delivered. In-fact now it has put GoP in an awkward position. China...well they put a stout piece of wood up our..... and that was the end of that story.

Deploying proxies and supporting them requires a solid long term objective, steadfastness, strong political and public support for the cause, economic and military muscle, and alignment with big power goals in that particular area of operations. Now even with all of this, proxies tend to go their own way when they start exerting influence in their are of operations. US has been at the receiving end of it many a times, and Pakistan too.

Pakistan has none of the above except in one instance, the first Afghan adventure. We should learn from our mistakes and move away from this strategy, it does not work and has not worked for us without the support of the lone superpower. Even China treads with care on this strategy given the myriad complexities in its operations. The nine sisters is a case in point on north east India.

It is high time that we hunker down and look inwards as a nation and do a self check on where we have gone wrong as a nation and what has destroyed our social fabric. Look towards the economy. Don't seek foreign investment but look towards creating and eco system that supports local investment in manufacturing, agri, power distribution and energy and services sectors. There is tons of money that Pakistanis can deploy which they have invested overseas if they feel that its worth their effort and their investments are safeguarded. The trust that was destroyed in the early 70's needs to be restored. This is where entities like SIFC should concentrate. Short term patchwork is not going to work now.

And we certainly need to desist from this proxy game. Hamaray bus ki baat nahee rahee ab ye khel.!!! We have suffered and are suffering.

I still remember when in 2001 one of my acquaintances who used to work for the state department mentioned that when he spoke to a veteran diplomat who had been stationed in New Delhi for a while said that Pakistan should resolve its issues with India on Kashmir soon otherwise India is fast approaching a position in the world pecking order where Pakistan would be threatened with surrendering its side of Kashmir down to Mari!!!

It is high time we took our heads out of our behinds and smell the air.... my apologies for the harsh words and tone.


My 2C worth

Brilliantly analysed.

 

[Oscar]

Brilliantly analysed.

there are many that echo this sentiment within the Pakistani corridors of power but are shut out by the mediocre or opportunists.

That doesn’t mean that India for both its national interest (and at times under hawkish extremist push) doesn’t pose the primary threat to Pakistan. But that the policies to tackle the threat - either by resolving the issues when the opportunity was ripe(98-99 & 2006-7) or through proper calculated strategy (Limited application of the Kargil “adventure” and Kashmiri nationalism rather than rabid Jihadists) was simply not done. Combine that with what is repeatedly pointed out is total institutional failure and strip mining of Pakistan’s resources and gross mismanagement - Pakistan’s quasi-state structure has been writing checks it had no capacity to cash in any aspect.

Now that overarching strategic goal is lost - it should count its blessings. Finish at LoC and work to keep what it has as @Aamir Hussain has so eloquently put - and do all it can to mend relations with India even if it means bending backwards because right now it has less and less of a choice.

The defense is secured - Pakistan’s weapons are still sufficient to blunt any aggression for the required time to send messages and get sanity in play while the calculus to cause irreparable harm to India is kept with the large number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems - MAD exists in the subcontinent and any ABM or otherwise guarantees nothing more than maybe 5% less losses.

But the issue is NOT that - and its internal to Pakistan and beyond the scope of this thread.

 

[Reichmarshal]

This is my two cents.

Creating proxies to operate against Iran, India and China is a losers game for different reasons.

I do not see anything wrong with supporting Islamic variant of the Taliban as long as you can control it and manipulate it. At least you own Afghanistan and you can own Afghanistan to trade with Central Asia. If there is nothing in Central Asia to trade with even the Taliban turns into a losing game. It is utterly embarrassing to support the Taliban for 2 decades and have them turn on their paymaste

Through out history the one thing that has repeated it self again n again is the fact that nations urge n desire to control others be it countries groups.
N the end result has always been the same ie soon or later those bring controlled have come back to bite them in the as$.
But we humans don't learn from our mistakes.....n all the control freaks should get them selves a pet

 

[_NOBODY_]

@Deino You laughing at my post indicates your disagreement. Is the J-31's internal bay large enough to make it a suitable strike fighter?

 

[Zarvan]

Can you kindly remind us how you reached the conclusion that India is “at least 15 years more to resolve” IAF’s bottlenecks?

I have reached this conclusion by searching about their HAL and DRDO. And the way their government operate. Even by best case estimates of Indians their TEJAS MK 2 is at least 4 to 5 years away. That is also in case everything goes smoothly which is not going to happen. Their AMCA is 10 to 15 years away. If let say a SU-30 goes for overhaul at HAL they take close to 2 years to overhaul a single plane. They are disaster beyond imagination. Yes, their Naval sector is doing good at least in ship sector.

 

[Awwad]

I have reached this conclusion by searching about their HAL and DRDO. And the way their government operate. Even by best case estimates of Indians their TEJAS MK 2 is at least 4 to 5 years away. That is also in case everything goes smoothly which is not going to happen. Their AMCA is 10 to 15 years away. If let say a SU-30 goes for overhaul at HAL they take close to 2 years to overhaul a single plane. They are disaster beyond imagination. Yes, their Naval sector is doing good at least in ship sector.

India checkmates us on economy. That holds the key to checkmate in every other sector. Indian spending on defense is sustainable, they have already laid the ground work, the industrial foundations, the private corporations partnerships, they are slow but steady. Their naval programs also took a while to mature and now in few years, it will be producing metal like Juggernaut. Exactly same will happen with aviation sector. In addition to their indigenous programs for 4.5 & 5th gen, I think they will do partnerships for MMRCA program. They are at the level where Lockheed martin wants to setup plants in india for production of F-21.

F-21

Meet the F-21, specifically configured for the Indian Air Force, with unmatched 'Make in India' opportunities for advanced airpower.

www.lockheedmartin.com

" The F-21 provides unmatched opportunities for Indian companies of all sizes, including Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and suppliers throughout India, to establish new business relationships with Lockheed Martin and other industry leaders in the US and around the globe.

This program will be ‘Made in India’ generating tens of thousands of highly skilled jobs through the maturation of India’s large and emerging aerospace and defence (A&D) manufacturing network. "


On the other hand, we are actually lucky that China progressed immensely in last 20 years and we found a supplier which can provide latest weaponary without imposing sanctions or applying conditions (atleast not publicly if at all). Otherwise, PAF situation would have been like what was in 1990s, when US wasn't selling anything, Russia wasn't selling too because of India's pressure, no local manufacturing capabilities and the best China could offer was J-7 PG. But even with a solid supplier, we seriously need to do sustainable purchases for defense. Even when india wasn't looking for immediate 5th Gen solution, I wonder what was the urgency to make 'very soon' announcement. J-10C, F-16s, JF-17s was enough of a balance with current indian setup. When according to you AMCA is 10-15 years away, perhaps we should have invested and done partnership on 5th gen programs like KAAN? PAF was a partners & owners in a 4th / 4++ gen platform like JFT with China and its mainstay of our airforce. Would that be not a downgrade that we will only be user in 5th gen platform and completely dependent without any say or input. While, india on other hand will be producing their own.

Anyways, we don't have to underestimate the adversary. We need to analyze they are doing long term plannings with sustainable growth.

 

[Falcon26]

I have reached this conclusion by searching about their HAL and DRDO. And the way their government operate. Even by best case estimates of Indians their TEJAS MK 2 is at least 4 to 5 years away. That is also in case everything goes smoothly which is not going to happen. Their AMCA is 10 to 15 years away. If let say a SU-30 goes for overhaul at HAL they take close to 2 years to overhaul a single plane. They are disaster beyond imagination. Yes, their Naval sector is doing good at least in ship sector.

This is the wrong way to look at things. By the way, both HAL & DRDO are being reformed and the private sector such as TATA etc are being promoted in a big way.

But beyond the military industrial complex, you also need to take account of the serious way the decision-making process and procurment culture is being reformed. You also need to take account of the creation of inter-service level leadership positions such as the Chief of Defence Staff. This position was specifically created among other reasons to “assign inter-services prioritisation to capital acquisition proposals.” This position will also be responsible of the integration and seamless interconnection of the Indian armed forces.

So on many fronts, the Indians are working incessantly to address their strategic bottlenecks, at the highest levels. So your “15 years away” is just a fantasy and not grounded in reality. Reality doesn’t work how we want or wish it to work. It has its own means and methods.

Finally, ask yourself what the Pakistani state has done to correct its perennial bottleneck of a stagnant economy. Worse, in addition to a stagnant economy, a rising population and extreme unemployment, the Pakistani state, thanks to its out of control army generals, now also has to contend with social cohesion and extreme polarization.

You are underestimating the evolving indian mindset and obsession of being a superpower. You underestimate them at your own peril.

 

[Nilgiri]

Great posts and debate guys.

Sharp thorns cannot be be-all end-all in zero sum fashion. Fruit is what matters first. Thorns must grow around the fruit....only thorns means the plant stagnates and whithers away at great cost and cannot sustain. It is fruit that perpetuates the plant species not the thorns.

North Korea has extreme form of bunker state to protect an extreme cult-regime of concerted power inside it.....but at what cost?

What would the PRC have been if there was similar continuation (to North Korea) of extreme-Maoism after Mao?....and no Deng pragmatism w.r.t "it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice".

"Its the economy stupid."

Where does Pakistan ultimately want to lie on the south korea - north korea spectrum? Same Korean people essentially, but subjected to very different routes from a great diverging fork on the road.

@Joe Shearer @VCheng @That_Guy