Iran launches Operation True Promise - massive missile/drone strikes across Israel, Israel allegedly responds with quadcopters

[FuturePAF]

Was it true a major meeting of IRGC officers and proxies were happening in southern Baghdad and it was struck?

 

[maithil]

This attack will be termed inconsequential and hence no response.

 

[Guynextdoor]

This attack will be termed inconsequential and hence no response.

I don't think there was much utility to this attack.

 

[Immortals]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781180047258251490

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781158843546038446

 

[That_Guy]

Nothing will happen. Iran is boxed in. Israel has done worse drone attacks using Mossad assets inside Iran. HZ this week destroyed more assets (AESA radar) and killed/wounded soldiers than anything Iran has done. This “attack” by Israel is so limited it can’t even force an attack by Iran back at least not from Iranian soil.

Also the target is very strange, wether drone facility or Isfahan air base or a strike close to Natanz, either way they didn’t attack IRGC. Iran’s Artesh (Air Force branch) is not involved in this shadow war. They do not operate in shadow theaters and just act like a traditional military.


So a part of me thinks today we will hear Israel deny this was them or the actual main strike. Maybe they saw something worth taking out and decided to attack quickly. But baring a historic retreat by Israel, this attack does not smell like an Israeli attack.

So far Israel seems to be keeping quiet, and Iran seems to be down playing the situation.

This may very well be the last event in this series.

 

[Shawnee]

Was it true a major meeting of IRGC officers and proxies were happening in southern Baghdad and it was struck?

Empty building

 

[PakFactor]

Whether failed or not (depending on who's narrative you believe), this was still a direct attack on Iranian soil.

If Iran doesn't respond, and just down plays until the matter is closed it's not gonna be a good look for Iran.

Regional events are taking interesting turns; let's see where we end up several years from now. Iran, most likely, has to respond to stay on top of the escalation ladder.

 

[mangekyo]

They have openly attacked. How are they cowards when they went against the whole world to do what is needed. Even if it meant there will be retailiation?

This amount to making a rude gesture to someone who has bullied you your entire life and then go home masturbate to the excitement.

 

[maithil]

I don't think there was much utility to this attack.

We won't know about Utility unless Israel decides to release videos ... Other side will obviously downplay.. Hopefully this is the end of this skirmish..

 

[MLK]

Honestly? Yeah, it was pretty disappointing.

After all that chest thumping, and they only managed this? Even of the shots hit their targets, there's nothing to show for it (so far anyway).

Still, Iran promised to respond to any attack on its soil by Israel, let's see what happens now.

I'm not Iranian but IF no Missiles were involved at all then wouldn't respond to this. IF only Quadcopters were used then it must mean that the attack was initiated inside Iran by Israeli/American assets/traitors. Quadcopters can't reach Iran from Israel.

 

[RescueRanger]

Was it true a major meeting of IRGC officers and proxies were happening in southern Baghdad and it was struck?

Where did you read this?

 

[Qureshi]

Was it face saving?

Doesn't make sense to help them save face after humiliating them.

Read my other sentence too in the same post....

Let me brief....


It appears that this strike was carried out with the consent of the Iranian authorities in order to save face for Israel. As a result, now the US, EU, and Israeli media highlighting Israel's response.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780199469172113877

 

[Immortals]

So far Israel seems to be keeping quiet, and Iran seems to be down playing the situation.

This may very well be the last event in this series.

I don’t think so. Iran has significant active duty personnel called up manning radars and defense points 24/7. High state of alert. military command are in bunkers/command and control centers prepared against a decapitation strike and so they can direct forces.

Israel likely wanted to test the defenses for after Passover. Or this wasn’t Israel at all and just a rogue agent taking matters into his own hands. Anyone can buy quadcopters in Iran. Could even be Israeli sympathizers. 3 drones doesn’t smell like a nation state attack, Iraqi miltias and Hamas fire more than that in a single day.

Iran will likely reduce state of alert because it is costly for a country to keep its military at full alert 24/7, have all their expensive radars turned on scanning for F-35’s or CMs costing $$$$ per/hr to operate, and having to pay thousands/tens thousands of soldiers to be on call and deployed for a possible major strike.

So Israel wants Iran to drop its alert status.

I wouldn’t be comfortable if I was Iran. Something here doesn’t “feel” right to me.

 

[Fatman17]

Arab Countries Have Israel’s Back—for Their Own Sake

Last weekend’s security cooperation in the Middle East doesn’t indicate a new future for the region.

By Steven A. Cook

 

[Awwad]

The point was that to truly defeat an enemy, you must break BOTH his will and ability to wage war. In the current conflict between Israel and Iran, neither could do that to the other. But Iran is at a significant, not slight, technological disadvantage and when Iran cannot cross troops overland to Israel, technology is the only avenue left.

Nope. Not at all!

Technology isn't the only thing, the logistics, the geography, the regional actors, the geo-politics, the proxies /militias everything counts.

If technology would be the only thing to matter then US would not have faced a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. They waged war over Taliban for decades and US had to leave in their protection. Taliban became strongest ever while US were fighting it. If Technology is the only thing that matters then US would not have faced a horrific defeat in Vietnam.

As far as Israel vs Iran is concerned, there are massive advantages of Iran that if I start mentioning it will take half of my day. I will just write few to give you idea,

- Iran has its powerful allied militia next to Israeli border, the hezbullah, Israel do not have such leverage over the Iran. Infact whole of Iraq has become pro-Iran and it has got strategic depth inside Iraq.

- Iran can sustain long time war, it doesnot rely on certainty, doesn't rely on travel & trade much, its already under heaviest sanctions and is self sufficient in most things. Whereas Israelis have to literally shutdown their country, the trade, travel, people running down on bunkers and etc.

- Iran's capabilities are designed to fight war of attrition and deplete its adversaries, its infrastructure is built to absorb bombings - See Houthis followed Iranian model at much smaller scale, they faced bombings for 5 years and they came more stronger. The US/UK bomb them and the next day they are firing missiles all over the place. Iran is houthis x 1000. They have their assets hidden / in bunkers / under ground storages / they can absorb bombings

- Iran's even cheapest drones have ranges till Israel. Those drones can carry explosives too, so Israel have a compulsion to destroy them. There is no logistical possibility to keep shooting down 10K USD drone with a million dollar missile forever.

- While Iran has such drones, Iran also have advance BMs, they demonstrated that they can hit the most critical & defended place ( airbase) in Israel at its highest level of alertness with US / UK / France defending it.

- Israeli jets do not have enough combat range to carry out strikes in Iran. None of Israeli jets have ranges to carry out strikes deep in Iran (center or eastern sides). Also note down that they will have to fly over Iraq which do have Iranians assets likely with AD units in such scenarios. That eliminates the possibility of refueling or flying AWACS over Iraqi airspace.

- The size of the nation, its geography, its self sufficiency, all favors Iran. While Israel is literally facing Hezbullah (mini-Iran) at its border and exhausted army in Gaza. Houthis are far away but they are also causing significant economic losses by targeting any ship to or from Israel at most critical sea route on planet. The strait of hormuz is also now denied for Israeli ships.